right now politically isn’t much different than 1980, gas prices going higher, inflation getting worse, foreign thing happened that you got shit all over on.
tl’dr you never go full Jimmy Carter
Biden is sadly probably better than the alternatives (Harris, Mayor Pete, etc.).
To be clear, by better I mean more likely to beat Trump. Trump wins like 350 EVs against Harris and 325 against Pete.
This is Trump’s starting point:
CO, VA, NJ, ME are also all in play.
Lol, no.
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Only 5 points away from VA in 2020. It could happen. NM might be a better bet to be in play, though.
MN hasn’t gone R since '72. It may go red but putting it as his “starting point” is a bit much.
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2020 is the high water mark for republican outrage and democratic apathy. It was an off off year election. I’m not saying the republicans aren’t favorites to retake everything in ‘24, but it’s not going to be in a winning NJ type rout unless things get worse then they are now. Things will probably be better then they are now and 2024 will probably be close either way.
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I think it’s almost a certainty the economy is in worse shape in 2024 than it is now. You really think things will get better? Or do you mean COVID?
Covid is still driving everything right now and I think it will be better. The economy isn’t actually that bad right now, it’s just weird, also because of Covid. I think both will be better / more normal by ‘24, yes.
Edit: Also, Build back better and the infrastructure bill will both help things. I get that it’s not nearly enough to stop big bads like climate change, but there is still a lot of good shit that helps people in both bills, especially BBB if it passes.
Also my “starting point” factors in near-complete Republican control of state legislatures in the swing states after they win everything next year. They won’t let the Dem win any of those states, regardless of the vote totals.
I think 2018 is the model for how 2022 is going to go. It’s going ot be really high republican turnout but also high democratic turnout. Republicans are going to retake the house and probably the senate, but I don’t know that it’s with the margins they ran up in 21. The dems also did much better in 17 then 18 and if you remember 18 was actually a disappointment in the end for the dems because the republicans turned out too. I think the inverse is going to happen in 22. I don’t know if, for example, they take the republican governorship, etc. I don’t know that they lock all the trifectas in the swing states.
I mean sign me up if that’s the case. I’m much more pessimistic.
This forum sometimes amplifies pessimism way too much.
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We do a shiity job at pessimism, and we’re never going to get better at it. Just accept it.
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I started out as one of the most optimistic people here. I thought 2020 Biden was going to crush, we were going to get 53+ senate seats and expand the house. I thought we would nuke the filibuster, pack the supreme court, passing HR1 etc etc.
I’m optimistic as hell by nature. I see my pessimism as due to reality and based in logic. I truly think we’re completely fucked. All the signs are there. I want to be somewhat optimistic, but I don’t see what the optimistic people are seeing. If they could point out logically how we aren’t completely fucked I would greatly appreciate it.
To be clear I don’t think Republicans win 40 states or anything. We’re too polarized for that now. But Republicans absolutely lock in power indefinitely until there is some kind of massive cultural shift or economic disaster and a new democratic party rises from the ashes of this one. A decade at minimum. We won’t end up in camps but state violence against minorities and leftists is going to skyrocket.
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Thing is most Trump supporters hate most Republicans. I suppose if Trump tells them to vote GOP all the way, they’ll do it but he rips into them quite a bit.
Conservatives do not hesitate for a moment to ally with people they hate in service to a goal. If the libs are owned its all good.
Lots of chiefsplanet guys say they won’t ever vote again because the whole game is rigged, not sure how widespread this sentiment is among Trumpalos.