Yeah I just don’t agree with that but the arguments on each side are obvious and I’m not sure there is much left to say. I would just note that Bernie’s policy platform is much more popular than Biden’s, which is wholly ignored by the David Shor “you have to moderate on policy” douchebags. Biden got primary votes because trusted sources (to them - namely Clyburn types and mainstream media) told Democrats, uniformly horrified by Trump, that it was the sensible choice.
compared to someone like sanders, biden actually evolved his policy proposals. there were a bunch of articles on top wonks from warren and inslee campaigns being hired and adopted by biden. yeah we are now stuck with even biden’s proposals are being stymied by senators cleancoal and bitchcakes, and it’s no consolation now. but there was a significant shift during the primaries.
I mean Biden was in last place until SC. Only black rank and file voters fell in behind Biden before there were no other choices, and thats because Clyburns endorsement and being Obama VP. Hell even before SC the media was all in against Bernie, and started to hype up Biden as they realized he was likely to do well in SC. It was seen as the last chance to throw Bernie off the winning path.
If we had done all 50 states with no one dropping out not a fucking chance Biden ends up in first place,
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You mean after three primaries had been run in tiny states?
That’s exactly what I’m saying. My question is, why Biden and not Klob, or Buttigieg, or O’Rourke, or Harris, or Warren, or any of the other previous media darlings? It was Biden because he was the only establishment guy voters were broadly prepared to accept. The fact that he was “likely to do well in SC” is just a restatement of his popularity among broad sections of the Democratic base, in particular in the more conservative areas.
To the extent that Bernie was ever on “the winning path” it was an artifact of first-past-the-post voting, which, see below.
Well it would probably be Bernie, but only because first past the post voting is a terrible system which produces anti-democratic outcomes.
First past the post voting answers the question “who has the biggest contingent of enthusiastic supporters” and that was probably Bernie. Ranked-choice voting answers the question “who is most broadly acceptable to voters” and that was always Biden, and it was Biden despite the best efforts of the party to get someone up who they perceived as a safer choice.
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One of which was the IA caucus, which is always a goofy outlier for various reasons.
Like I said I think he mostly did well in SC because clyburn and the establishment threw their weight behind him there. It’s true the establishment wasn’t for him in the early states because he was such a risky candidate. But they mostly consolidated around him once he got a bunch of big endorsement in SC.
Anyways it’s pretty ridiculous the early primary states are mostly all in States we have zero chance of winning. The early states need to be all swing states so we choose the best candidate for winning there. I’m not arguing it wouldn’t have been Biden anyways, but doing all the southern states guarantee we get the most conservative candidate every time. Probably by design
It’s pretty fucking close! The biggest difference seems to be that if a “real” elevator operator doesn’t show up for work it’s still possible for you to operate the elevator on your own, whereas if this “not operator” isn’t there you can’t go anywhere.
While I’m loathe to continue this derail, I would argue that only manually controlled elevators can have elevator operators.
Normal NYTimes employees don’t need anyone to run the elevator for them.
National, one-day primary decided by popular vote?
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The media would hate this because they love the state by state horse race. They’d amplify the message of anyone that opposed it.
In a vacuum, 50 states simultaneously might have been good for Bernie in 2020… But, if we had same day 50 state primary in 2016, 2020 Bernie probably doesn’t exist because he gets waffle crushed by Clinton in '16 before he has a chance to build up credibility and momentum in smaller/cheaper states.
Same for Obama in 2008. In a single day race, everyone goes for the “safe” pick and Hillary wins.
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loath
(here to derail the derail!)
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If we do a national primary with no one dropping out, a brokered convention is a lock. Bernie won New Hampshire, but he only got 36% of the delegates. If we did a real national primary, longshots hoping to bink an early state in the current system would drop out in the months leading up, though they might stay in hoping to play a role in the brokering.
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Looks like the Democratic Party is taking steps to change the primary calendar, though some State rules may throw a wrench in those plans:
President Biden is not a big fan. Former Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez is openly opposed. And elsewhere in the Democratic inner sanctum, disdain for Iowa’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucus has been rising for years.
Now the day of reckoning for Iowa Democrats is fast approaching, as the national party starts to create a new calendar for the 2024 presidential nomination that could remove Iowa from its privileged position for the first time since 1972, when candidates started flocking to the state for an early jump on the race to the White House.
What is the consequence of going against these State rules?
A state law in Iowa requires the parties to hold their nominating caucuses at least eight days before any other state caucus or primary, and the state law in New Hampshire requires that its primary be at least a week before any other state. Republicans, who control government in both states, have made clear that they plan to stick to tradition for their party in 2024.
Also, lol at NH having a Republican controlled government. Biden won 53% of the vote in 2020, they have an all Democratic congressional delegation, and this is their county results map for 2020.
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How the fuck does a state have a law telling the national parties that that state has to be first? That makes zero sense. What if 10 states had that law?
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the republican government of iowa should sue the republican government of new hampshire in the supreme court. i don’t think it would resolve anything without fucking over the poor or brown people, but it would make a great 5-4 episode.
National parties don’t decide when primaries happen, they just decide whether to recognize delegates selected by a primary. Florida tried to do an early primary in 2008: Republican candidates ignored the RNC sanction, Obama and Hillary technically followed it but nibbled around the edges. I don’t recall whether the delegates were recognized after the primary was held.
We are so incredibly fucked.
We began by asking eligible voters how “convincing” they found a dog-whistle message lifted from Republican talking points. Among other elements, the message condemned “illegal immigration from places overrun with drugs and criminal gangs” and called for “fully funding the police, so our communities are not threatened by people who refuse to follow our laws.”
Almost three out of five white respondents judged the message convincing. More surprising, exactly the same percentage of African-Americans agreed, as did an even higher percentage of Latinos.
Shout out DVaut1, the GOAT:
Progressives commonly categorize Latinos as people of color, no doubt partly because progressive Latinos see the group that way and encourage others to do so as well. Certainly, we both once took that perspective for granted. Yet in our survey, only one in four Hispanics saw the group as people of color.
Hmm, any candidates that did this? How did the eDem ghouls treat that candidate?
Democrats should call for Americans to unite against the strategic racism of powerful elites who stoke division and then run the country for their own benefit. This is not to deny the reality of pervasive societal racism. But it does direct attention away from whites in general and toward the powerful elites who benefit from divide-and-conquer politics.
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By that you mean Obama and Hillary agreed that the delegates from Florida wouldn’t count, neither of them campaigned there, and then months later Hillary tried to say they SHOULD count after she lost in the other states.
While we’re shitting on New Hampshire:
Thanks a lot for George W Bush, assholes. If NH goes blue in 2000, Florida is irrelevant.
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