He’s been at 43% before. He spent the entire second half of 2017 at that around that level.
I don’t think this is a big deal.
That was also when he was at his lowest polling average, and back before the tax bill. 39.9 is the number to watch on the polling average. If it slips below that it’ll be the lowest it’s been since the end of 2017 beginning of 2018, except now it’s almost an election year. He slips back down into the high 30’s and stays there this close to an election and he’s toast, no matter how much Russia helps him out. He stays between 40.5 and 43 percent and I think he’s probably at least 50-50 to win re-election.
Edit: And if he goes above 43 percent, with everything else that is going on to help him (voter suppression, Russian interference, etc), then I think he is a clear favorite to win re-election.
Eh, think more likely is that Romney and Co. made it clear to Mitch that there was going to be a legitimate trial come hell or high water.
It’s a myth that McConnell can singlehandedly block stuff (like the Garland heist). If there are enough R votes, along with the given D votes, to get to a majority and the R renegades are passionate about the issue, they can easily overcome whatever procedural roadblock Mitch throws up.
Mitch was able to block Garland because the rest of the Rs wanted him to, and all involved were happy to let Mitch be the point person to take the heat for it.
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Sure, it’s not meaningless either. It’s most likely both a bit of an outlier and a decrease in his support.
Tulsi’s platform is very progressive, but her voting record is pretty centrist-dem - even a little bit on the right side of the Democratic Party. I’ve looked up her rating from a progressive group that rates every congressperson’s voting record.
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lol@Gabbard would take votes from trump with this picture when she’s obviously going to get bernie supporters.
How does Yang rank all the way over there on the right? Serious question as he’s for pretty much all the stuff as Warren/Bernie except a wealth tax (which he’s absolutely right will not actually work)??
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Steve Bannon is doing great guys
I’m fine with all of this.
I think people keep getting hung up on how likely they think any of this is to happen and suddenly are arguing the likelihood rather than likely process assuming anything happens. I don’t hear you saying any of this is guaranteed to happen, just that if it does happen, this is a likely path.
Pleasehaveturneddoubleagentpleasehaveturneddoubleagent
TBF a lot of us would probably crumble faster than we realize if the president came after us on his Twitter. He’s so vicious!
Am I remembering right that you’re referencing something that actually happened last election?
Didn’t he insta-switch to a different poll last time Rass failed him?
How likely do you think it is that if we tweet an approval number graphic of 55% or something with the Unstuck brand that we will become Trump’s retweet of the day???
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That’s actually brilliant, but make it something like 58%. He’ll eat that shit up.
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Yah I am only 20% joking. I actually think it would have a fair chance of him retweeting. And even if not, it would drive some traffic here.
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Not sure we want the kind of traffic it would drive though. The internet doesn’t need a second chiefsplanet.
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Yeah, he only tweet brags when his approval is 50% or higher so he had to reference his Zogby poll numbers in August
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1163521046055665664
538 calls Zogby the worst pollster in the world.
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we should definitely do this
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She’s not popular with anyone else’s supporters, but far less unpopular with Liz supporters than with Bernie supporters.
I’m thinking of the traffic it would drive long-term. Yes, it would bring some rubes initially, but that’s the point of a bait and switch.
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It’ll take me five minutes to build a graphic
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Have the polling firm be TIAD/SBIARI Polling.
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