Other countries who traditionally been close to the US would be taking a massive risk backing such a conspiracy. If regime change comes in 2020 I think such activity would be harshly addressed. Especially given everything known now.
So you’re saying theres a chance.
Oh defineatly to both the chance and the rampant cheating.
Yeah it wasn’t long ago he was trumpeting 51% polls. I think it is a significant movement.
I’m not a polling expert but a poorly designed poll is poorly designed. Seems odd to latch onto it now because it shows something we like.
Was gonna ask for a cite on your parenthetical but I just went and googled instead. Per Nate, most of them would not have voted at all, followed by Clinton, followed by Trump. (Nate has said more than once he thinks her impact was negligible)
It’s probably an outlier but he polls a lot so we should know fairly soon
Right, but Stein ran to everyone’s left on issues like the environment, so she captured far-left one issue voters. Who the **** is going to vote for Tulsi? She’s got no “base” as far as I can tell.
Yeah Mitch doesn’t put stuff to vote for it to falter or expose disunity. He had to be doing this for other reasons.
That or Trump literally would not shut up about it the six times a day he cries to Mitch on the phone and Mitch finally said “Fine, how you like them apples?”
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Meh, Rasmussen is just skewed towards republicans by 6-8 points. It’s not a D+ poll on five thirty eight or anything like that and 538 does include it in it’s polling average. A movement this big is significant.
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Plus she might be able to grift millions from some recount vote and make off with it.
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Thanks Devoss!
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Interesting. I didn’t know 538 still used it in their average. They trash talk it all the time in their podcast.
That’s the most likely scenario I can think of.
It’s bad. It’s C+. That said I agree the movement is significant, I’m pretty sure it’s one of the lowest numbers for Trump theyve had.
And the yougov pole over the same period had one of the highest. It’s one poll, it doesn’t mean much. Thats why Silvers averages a bunch of them.
It’s more significant for its psychological Impact on Trump. He has hugged a Rasmussen as propaganda to his base that he had approval for the majority. Touting 43% approval would be weird. Also just because a poll is badly formed doesn’t mean you can’t extrapolate macro information when it makes a massive move.
Also it potentially foretells legitimate polls delivering even lower numbers in the future.
Russian Bots obviously.
Right, and Silver’s average is currently down to 40.6 percent, the lowest it’s been in quite a while. If it dips into the high 30’s that’ll be the lowest it’s been since right before the republicans passed the tax cut, when it looked like he couldn’t get anything done. pay attention to it for the next week or so. If it inches back up it’s a blip. If it keeps inching back down it’s significant.
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I looked it up, last Rasmussen 43 was conducted in mid January. There have been a couple 44s though and it’s been as high as 52 with average around 48 to 49 probably. Doesn’t mean much by itself but the average seems to be slipping a bit per 538.