They won’t vote, they won’t show up, the Democrats will win so bigly it will make everyone’s head spin. I don’t remember what the criteria are for passing amendments but they make take home the whole kitty. Citizens United? Bye Bye. Well regulated militia? Bye bye.
Trump’s base isn’t that big if people that don’t like him are motivated to vote. Trump has always been at around 40% popularity. He’s never going to go from 60 million votes in 2016 to 70 million votes in 2020.
Trump can win the 2020 election. He can also lose by 20 million votes if Dems show up.
Oh damn, I’m much more impressed that so much of that is your own work. I just thought I was missing out on something someone else had made that I hadn’t seen before, not something at least quai-original. Even if it doesn’t totally reflect my thesis as of tonight, it is perfect for this morning.
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crossposted from closed thread
I like the idea of charging a single article of impeachment on the phone call and directly related. Quickly. Due to immediacy of national security.
But also continuing investigations for articles due to Russian interference, graft, etc.
A few important things… First, we don’t know what Trump’s new approval rating will be. 44% was before this shit really hit the fan. He’s certainly going back down into the high 30’s, maybe worse.
In terms of the Senate Republicans turning on Trump, this isn’t about who wins the presidential election. This is about winning their own re-election. For example, Collins almost has to vote to convict and hope that it makes people forget about her Kavanaugh vote. If she votes for Kavanaugh AND acquits Trump, she’s 100% toast.
For someone in a deep red state, their biggest threat is a primary challenge. But, then again, if their vote on this drives up Democratic turnout and gets them shellacked among independents, they may have to consider that losing the general is a possibility.
All of this calculus changes if they’re running for re-election in 2020 versus 2022 versus 2024. When the vote takes place also matters. If they’re running in 2020, is it too late to get primaried? If this vote is in a week, they have to factor in the primaries. If it’s farther down the line, filing deadlines start to pass in November and December. Three Senate Republicans are out of the woods on a new primary challenger being able to file as of December 21. Three more in January. A ton at the end of March.
In addition, the margin of the vote matters. If the GOP is largely turning on him, then they’ll have cover. They’ll be able to go back to their base and say they had no choice. As a result, I think there is virtually no chance the vote is 67-33 or even 70-30 or 64-36. If it’s not going to get to 67, it’ll be like all Dems (with the possible exception of Manchin), Collins, Gardner, and 2-3 other Republicans voting to convict. If it’s going to get to 67, McConnell will probably try to hold the whole caucus together (or as close as possible) to make it nearly unanimous. So the behind the scenes whip counts may be very close, but the end tally probably won’t be.
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Would you believe that some people did not like this site too much at the Start? I know I couldn’t believe it either. 
I owe the forum creators a big thank you too 
for inviting me along. 
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Lawrence O’Donnell made a great point. He said you want to have at least 3-4 articles to give the other party a chance to vote with their POTUS on 2-3 of them, and still convict him on one. It gives them more cover with their base. But they should all be related to this. But they could all be related to this same thing… For example, I’m not a constitutional expert or a lawyer but in layman’s terms maybe one could relate to trying to obstruct, one could relate to an abuse of power, one could relate to colluding with a foreign government and one could relate to violating his oath of office.
No chance, not without some new scandal related to Kavanaugh coming to light.
He defiles daily perfectly acceptable smug smirks with his own smug smirks.
Yeah I agree with this. I think the need to tell a coherent and concise story is vital, but it’s also important to list more than a single offense. Listing just one thing makes it far too easy to write off as a single indiscretion. Enumerating multiple offenses encapsulated in the same story is the best strategy.
https://mobile.twitter.com/shaneharris/status/1177086946985820161
https://mobile.twitter.com/peregrinapdx/status/1177094203081314304
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At what point does the 25th come into play?
We know he’s a narcissist. He’s also clearly getting dimentia. As the stress gets worse hes going to become less and less stable and more and more incoherent.
How do the GOP folks think that plays out? Better or worse than impeachment?
Could they spin “we thank trump for his service, but unfortunately age prevents him from finishing his work. Unite behind Pence to honour his legacy”?
Over in Breitbart land, apparently the Dems are in a panic.
BUT HER E-MAILS!!!
EDIT: Slow pony
I kinda think the reason he’s rolling over on this so much is because the impeachment inquiry. He was doing his usual block and obstruct nonsense until talks got serious about impeachment and he just started folding to everything.
Possible someone told him that if the house does a full impeachment inquiry, he would lose his ability to block everything and much worse stuff he’s done would come out. Or maybe someone said if they begin impeachment we will not be able to block your taxes from coming out
Thats getting close to 4D chess though so unlikely. But if we get the complaint tomorrow and its bad but not super bad I think he’s probably trying to hide other stuff.
Or maybe he just thinks hes untouchable and doesn’t care anymore.
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I’m ashamed to say I clicked on this. What I found interesting, behind all the BS and misleading and selective quotes in the article was the most upvoted comment. The triumph, as usual, is to trigger the dems. This is like the apotheosis of conservative thought under Trump. I’m not sure what sort of information processing system one would need to come up with this and for it to be the most upvoted comment. I feel that, despite many nobel efforts, the Trumpist psychology has not been adequately explained.
I LOVE IT!
President Trump dropped a giant water balloon on the heads of the Dems when they got together have one of their collective Triggerings !
Trump 4D Chess move Flawless!
The core would seem to be genuine resentment. Why have the dems sought to complicate the world and its natural order? They defend the blacks, the Mexicans, and the gays, hug trees, eat weird shit, probably don’t like beer and BBQ, and don’t love God and the flag. Why can they not appreciate that Trump only wants what is good for real Americans? To be an ass kicker, an alpha, who doesn’t give in to foreigners and liberals. Well, they may bitch and moan like the sissys they are, but at least Trump will show them who is boss.
Like the entire discourse floats above policy, but to the extent it implies policy it is simply cultural grievance and ass-kicking Murica, with maybe some charity for poor souls who aren’t natural born ass kicking Muricans.
I think what has to be behind this sort of thinking is the implicit strong belief in a “natural order” and Trump somehow reflects and embodies that natural order. It seems all gut-level, and not driven by any more abstract considerations about how what is may differ from what could be or much less some ideal. Maybe the real concern is lashing out at people who tell them that what they think and beleive is actually wrong, according to x, y, and z, but they don’t understand or have time for x, y, and z, so they seem to reactively lash out against those who do not embrace their values and implicit understanding of the natural order. One minute they were paddling the pledges and getting drunk and everything was great, and now they’re being told they were in the wrong. Who has the right to judge them, some uppity negro or prius driving fem-man? It wasn’t like that when Murica was great, before the abortionists took over.
Really, I just find the who thing puzzling. I did not find Cory Robin’s The Reactionary Mind overly insightful about the psychology at work here, but I feel like it’s fairly “simple” and should be comprehensible.
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I lol’d but note the coherence when English probably isn’t even Z’s 2nd language.
Lol fuck this stupid ass country and its stupid ass president.