Marshawn on Russell Wilson
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iâm midway between cleveland and pittsburgh (so i know a lot), and youâd think so, but i donât think iâve ever heard a steeler fan say anything about tomlin past the usual âlolcoachingâ stuff.
guy on the radio said âbill the coach covers up bill the gmâs shortcomings too often for him to ever have a top pick⌠which bill the gm would probably screw up anywayâ and it made sense to me 
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I just donât know what to make of Cincinnati right now. It certainly doesnt seem like some temporary hiccups that theyâre on the verge of getting over.
ESPN has Burrow between Kenny Pickett and Justin Fields in total QBR.
The only two realistic options are that either Burrow has turned into a pumpkin or the nagging calf injury has him fucked up. The latter seems more likely to me.
They also started super slow last year after Burrow missed training camp and then turned it on from about now forward and nearly ran the table. Sometimes i get too caught up betting against trends but I will be betting Cincy this weekend for sure.
Itâs on tape. He canât move but the blocking and scheming arenât there either. OC/HC are AIDS tier been saying it for years. They were winning in spite of the coaching because they had the talent. The film evaluators all point out the same thing about their offensive scheme: itâs basic as fuck and doesnât have enough wrinkles. That first scripted drive against Titans they zipped right down the field but checked to a draw on 3rd & Goal from the 6, picked up 3, kicked the FG. Then it was button clicking after that. The defense is good but not if theyâre on the field the whole game.
Also if Higgins is out (broken rib), theyâll park a safety on top of Chase and force Boyd / WR4 to beat them. Irv Smith should be back this week at TE but doesnât sound like heâll be getting full reps. Theyâve mostly been using a blocking TE to replace him.
Thats not how professional sports bettors operate.
I donât want him fired, but facts are facts - weâve got over 10 seasons worth of games of Belichick as a head coach without the GOAT QB and his winning percentage is worse than Joe Philbin and Jerry Glanville. Worse than Lovie Smith and Rex Ryan. 1 playoff win.
What happened to the Patriots is pretty much what happened to the Aâs once people knew about Moneyball. All of a sudden, any edge they had in decision making, drafting, and roster moves was gone once the rest of the league started trying to act like them.
Belichick is simply no longer a unique coach. Most of the rest of the league has caught up in things like high-leverage decision making which is where Belichick thrived in the past.
That and Brady
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Higgins has been downright bad this year with a bunch of drops and stuff prior to the injury anyways. I get what you are saying but I also think this line would have been Bengals -7.5 or so prior to the season. You are getting a pretty huge discount here that already takes what you are saying into account.
well they try to get whales to place their bets for them cause theyâre limited/banned.
Look, everyone keeps saying something is sooooo hard and itâs not. Itâs not hard to beat the S&P, itâs not hard to beat NFL spreads, thereâs just way more games in other sports and easier itâs kind of a waste of time to spend so much energy on NFL to do it if youâre a pro but people gonna do what they want.
Like poker, kind of a waste of a time there these days too, thereâs so many easier things out there.
Talent matters far far farrrrrrrrrrrrrrr more to a teams record than coaching does but BB wins about 2 games every year another coach wouldnât. Like I still think the best bears coach since Lovie was John Fox and he went 14-34. But we judge by records and nothing else matters.
I mean look at the playoff teams every year, thereâs one or two flukes and the rest is #sortbyQBtalent or in the 9ers case most of the team is better than what other teams have and Purdyâs stats have been elite too.
Placing bets on nfl spreads is extremely easy. Again, you donât know how it works.
Iâm just commenting on why they are bad. Itâs certainly priced in and sits somewhere between their talent on paper and what theyâve actually shown on the field. Betting on that discrepancy between talent/personnel and performance always feels like more of a gamble to me though. Itâs one thing if the record / results are deceiving due to fluke plays, but the tape on them is no fluke: theyâve been as bad as the scores indicate in those road games. Looked much better at home.
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This is madness.
Yes and no, I agree in general but you can quite frequently get +EV spread bets by hitting certain slow books before they move with the rest of the market. Obv this isnât exactly what you meant though.
DK used to have a different odds provider for their sgp engine for example and would hang stale lines that were sometimes arbs to their own non-sgp lines
Iâm curious how everything shakes out if Bill would have been allowed to trade Brady.
Not a great matchup. Houston is bad against the run and Falcons should be able to sit on at least one of their weapons, maybe two depending on how they use AJ Terrell. Last two weeks the balls have predictably been going to the slot and TE, although Texans mix up the formations more than most teams. But the worst matchup is ATL pass offense being completely overmatched.