I don’t know enough about Payton, but a first+ for someone you think is a great playcaller is fine, I think.
After posting about how terrible Belichick/McDaniels/O’Brien offenses have been without Brady (combined, one season with a top 8 offense - and Weis and O’Brien offenses stunk in college), I looked at Andy Reid. Obviously McNabb and Alex Smith weren’t bums, but he also had 2 seasons as a top 8 offense with post-prison Mike Vick.
Reid’s first season was a lot of Doug Pederson. When McNabb was the guy:
12th / 9th / 4th (Jay Feeley and Koy Detmer started 6 games) / 11th / 8th / 18th (McNabb was hurt half the year) / 6th / 17th / 6th / 5th.
Then he dumped McNabb, who’s career was over, and got a top three offense out of post-prison Mike Vick, and the next year got a top 8 offense out of a Vick and Vince Young combo. Admittedly horrific his last season in Philly.
With Alex Smith:
6th / 16th / 9th / 13th / 6th
The three games Matt freaking Moore played when Mahomes was hurt, they averaged 27 points. They’ve moved the ball with Chad Henne when necessary.
Reid’s worth a ton. His floor is an average offense. I think there’s a chance Payton is worth that price. I don’t know enough about that stuff, and Brees’ numbers were inflated playing 9+ games a year in a dome. Broncos are built to win now, so it’s worth a shot (I wonder if they did the Chubb trade just to get that first, because they knew that’s what it would cost to get him).
i cant say this for sure but i think i definitely watched more MNF this year with Joe Buck/Aikman announcing than i did when Jason Witten was announcing.
It’s funny I watched the fourth quarter and ot of that New England and KC conference championship game a few years ago, last night. Romo was calling every pass play by New England.
I did hear part of it might have been other color guys complaining that they can do that too but don’t because reasons.
Bucs traded two 1sts and 2nds for Gruden and won the SB, still a woeful trade.
Pats traded the Jets a 1st along with a 4th, 5th, and two 7ths for BB, probably would redo that one.
Previously, the Jets sent a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th (spanned over two years) for Parcells. Debatable one but I’d argue guys like McVay or Shanny (would) have been worth it to similarly situated franchises.
That’s crazy bc St Louis basically pushed him into retirement so they wouldn’t lose Mike Martz. Basically same situation that happened at Oregon with Mike Bellotti and Chip Kelly. That was always my impression anyway.
I assumed it was a Rooney Rule violation and a forfeiture of picks, but no:
To get Vermeil, the Chiefs will give the Rams — the team Vermeil coached to the 2000 Super Bowl title — their second-round draftpick this year and a third-rounder in 2002. That third-round pick will come courtesy of the Washington Redskins, who gave the Chiefs the pick in exchange for the rights to Schottenheimer.
Great playcallers (like McDaniels, Gruden, maybe even Gase) get hired all the time and then proven to be frauds. It’s only at the end of a long career like with Reid that there’s really enough data to evaluate and by then the game has changed enough that any edge might be lost.
I flat out reject the idea that it’s ok to give up a first rounder for a guy the owner thinks is a goood play caller just because Andy Reid had consistent success with mostly good but occasionally mediocre QB play over a long career.
Chiefs tried to loophole signing him as a consultant, same thing NYJ tried to do with Parcells. Still odd bc of the complications I thought were at play before (Rams didn’t want him).
Kansas City pried Vermeil out of his consultant’s contract withSt. Louis, and the NFL ruled Wednesday it will cost the Chiefs a second- and third-round draft pick and Vermeil $500,000 he was paid this season by the Rams.
“The Rams feel vindicated that commissioner Tagliabue hasawarded us significant draft compensation,” he said.
“This decision protects and upholds the NFL’s anti-tamperingpolicy and the integrity of a coach’s contract. This matter is nowclosed. We will focus our efforts on completing the Rams’ coachingstaff, free agency, the upcoming collegiate draft and preparing forthe 2001 season.”
Yeah but this goes back to my original post on the matter. Is Payton even good?
Payton’s win % is .631 (9-8 in playoff games)
McCarthy’s is .614. (11-10 in playoff games)
They both had al time greats at QB and underperformed in the playoffs. Payton’s one season post Drew Brees they had the 28th ranked offense. This isn’t Andy Reid level here.
It’s actually likely that Russ will bounce back to a degree because there’s no way someone’s capability is as bad as he was last year if he also was as good as he was in Seattle, so the truth is probably in the middle and there will be a reversion to the mean next year and Payton can take credit, but this is still crazy to me.
Guy was also a Vicodin addict if I remember correctly
I get what you’re saying but the basis for competitive team building in 2023 NFL is drafting playable assets you don’t have to pay. That’s the highest WPA/$ by a mile. I’m not arguing that Denver will be competitive in the near future, but for a bad team already up against the cap, giving away more draft picks seems like pouring gasoline on the fire.
Here are Chiefs defensive players across personnel packages on rookie contracts who played more than 50% of snaps this year:
Player
Pos
Draft
Rd
Pick
McDuffie
SCB
2022
1
21
Karlaftis
DE
2022
1
30
Watson
CB
2022
7
243
Bolton
LB
2021
2
58
Gay Jr.
LB
2020
2
63
Sneed
CB
2020
4
138
Thornhill
FS
2019
2
63
That’s 7 out of the top 10 by snap share and doesn’t include a handful of other guys on rookie contracts contributing 25% to 40%. Then on offense there’s Hardman, CEH, Pacheco, Skyy Moore, Noah Gray, Allegretti, Trey Smith, and Creed Humphrey (PFF #1 C). There are at least a handful of home runs in this list where they’re paying A-tier talent $2.5M or less.
Looking at Denver’s drafts, there are only a few guys where you’d say wow great pick. Surtain was a home run, Quinn Meinerz appears excellent, and Jeudy is decent. Am I missing anyone? The other key contributors on rookie contracts seem to be replacement level or worse. Also, while Surtain is an astronomical bargain at $6M cap hit, that’s not exactly a cheap rookie deal.
That was all a preface to the main point I want to make though, which is that they traded for a coach. I don’t believe for one second that this guy has any kind of special value over replacement. There are dozens of other out-of-work coaches available you don’t have to trade picks for, and despite the romanticized idea that the draft is about finding uncut gems in the 6th round, the data is pretty clear that pick position is strongly correlated to player quality. The odds of finding guys who can provide $10M-$25M worth of production for $1M-$5M evaporate when you give 1st and 2nd round picks away, and they’re gonna have to find a few of those guys quickly before the bottom drops out of this thing.
Yeah the Chiefs drafts the last two years have been low key amazing. Getting Humphrey in the late 2nd, Trey Smith in the 6th, Karlaftis was like a top 10 prospect for most of the offseason last year and I guess fell to the late first because he’s something of a tweener. They’ve really done well. Compare their O line rebuild to the Bengals in terms of what was invested and what they got out of it.
This year’s Chiefs draft in particular is insane. We had 10 picks and all but one has contributed this year. The Chiefs seem to have hacked picking up solid CBs in later rounds (Sneed, our 2nd best player on defense, was a 4th rounder).
In the AFCCG we had 4 rookies playing in the dime secondary against maybe the best top-two WRs in the NFL - and they more than held their own. McDuffie doesn’t get a lot of press but the dude seems like he could be a lock-down corner, and he loves to tackle. Getting Jaylen Watson in the 7th round makes no sense to me.
Last year we had former high draft-pick guys like Mike Hughes and Deandre Baker getting torched by the Bills and Bengals in the playoffs.
Haha. I went to the last Expos game ever. It was at Shea Stadium. I’m sure I have the ticket stub packed away somewhere. I remember security asking us to leave/go back to our seats in like the 8th inning after we moved from the upper deck to front row right field line even though there was only a few 1000 people left in the stadium and the score of the completely meaningless game was 7-0 or something.
Sorry, I deleted my post almost immediately. Point I was trying to make was that there is a difference between hiring a known head coach and someone like Gase, McDaniels, or Freddie Kitchens. I knew McDaniels was a retread (as was BB) but I was referencing his first go-around (and his lack of a long tenure). Then I realized Gase got a second gig too and deleted bc it was all muddled.
Ended post by saying but that doesn’t mean you should trade picks for Mike McCarthy. LM’s point about the moneyball approach in the NFL is obv correct too.