The NFL Thread 2: 1. T Swift

https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1652357501843562499

fwiw I think the analytics over value future years, if you arenā€™t the GM drafting with those picks they are worth zero. yes organizational wise itā€™s great but if itā€™s for someone elseā€¦

Obviously if you have a guy thatā€™s a lot higher on your board thatā€™s still around for whatever reason Iā€™m on the just go get him theory of the draft.

I think trading down for future picks is immensely valuable, as a GM you can point to how well the team is set up for the futureā€¦but once you are going for a championship then theyā€™re overrated. Cash them in and trade up for your stars.

I think trading a future 3rd for a current 4th is terrible. Only one should trade up for QBs in the first or trade up for stars in the top 20 if youā€™re one or two pieces away.

that doesnā€™t mean much it was the future 1sts for 2nds (teams stopped doing this) that were absolutely stupid. Sure itā€™s not good but it doesnā€™t matter. An above average third round pick still isnā€™t a starter.

Ten was stupid not trying to move up into the late first instead of the second pick of round 2 for a QB though, if it pans out you want that extra cheap year instead of an extra whatever 5th or something.

Weā€™ve also had some examples of draft day way overreaction (tunsil, myles jackā€™s knee, maybe washingtons knee) that wouldā€™ve been worth it to go up cause it was stupid. (well then there was that probably didnā€™t murder but nobody wanted to touch it which I wouldā€™ve done it cause why not Iā€™m only gonna get one shot and gonna get fired anyway)

I watched some Hendon Hooker highlights after the Lions drafted him and it felt more like a Jalin Hyatt highlight reel. Shocked he was a 3rd rounder.

Heā€™s 40 years old

Also Jamo touched the ball 3 times last year and went for 40+ and 2 tds in those 3 touches (one called back for a hold). Jamo has speed that even NFL DBs have problems with. Unfortunately Goffs below average arm strength was also a problem. He had Jamo wide open for another score but under threw him so bad the DB recovered and got his fingers in there.

I was referring to Hyatt who is only 21. Hooker is intriguing. Iā€™m not super concerned about his age. Iā€™m not a huge fan of using a 3rd rounder on a pick who may never see the field, but he does have some impressive skills. If heā€™s 4 years younger and not injured heā€™s probably in top 10 consideration. I get ā€œStafford who can runā€ vibes from his game. He at least gives them a possible option if Goff doesnā€™t work out.

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Part of it is that he did it from Heupelā€™s unique spread where the two outside receivers are lined up essentially on their respective sidelines every play. Skepticism about translating that to NFL offenses against NFL defenses. Even things like much less ground between the hashes. Separation and space are maxed out at Tennessee, and unavoidably reduced from there to NFL

The hashes play a bigger role in college defenses sucking than people think, if they consider it at all

Still other QBs that were high recruits didnā€™t have near the success as Hooker. He has really good deep ball accuracy, hopefully he doesnā€™t struggle with reading NFL defenses.

Eagles: draft athletic freaks who fell because of 1) character and effort concerns and 2) health concerns.

Pundits: ZOMG A++++++ HOWIE ROSEMAN HAVE MY BABIES!!!

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Seems like a good strategy - if it hits you get a star for cheap, if it misses you can just move on.

Iā€™m guessing lots of GMs pass because they are too concerned about job security and thus risk averse. If youā€™re in a spot where drafting two busts could cost you your job, makes sense to play it safe. Similar reason why lots of coaches are risk averse on 4th down - as the upside is winning but the downside is losing your job.

Itā€™s still not like itā€™s some genius strategy. They fell into his lap.

Also if a character concern guy busts it drags your franchise down with it to some degree. The Eagles can probably withstand that. But the point is itā€™s not just risking bust on the field.

Well - there really arenā€™t any genius strategies in the draft - all you can do is pick good players that fall to you. The days of finding diamonds in the rough seems long over with all the scouting teams so. The only other way to consistently do better seems to be trading down and taking advantage of desperate teams.

Also, seems an odd take from you to criticize franchises taking risks on players will checkered pasts given that is one of Andy Reidā€™s calling cards.

Iā€™m not criticizing the Eagles, Iā€™m loling at pundits for falling all over themselves slurpling Howie Roseman.

Newly discovered SB IV full broadcast in color. The commercials are pretty wild. I teed up one of the weirdest ones.

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Wasnā€™t there a moniker for the late 90s - mid 00s Cowboys that related to their penchant for signing trouble players? Dallas Jailbirds or something?

Your vid didnā€™t link to it but itā€™s definitely the one where the flight attendant kisses the little boy with the note attached to his chest, right?

No itā€™s some girl in the woods with a creepy guy asking her stuff. Apparently the link is blocked on phones but if you copy it and go to youtube it works