The National Football League

I read it the same way as you did

Seems like he gets it more than most coaches at least.

Itā€™s pretty remarkable how this league is filled with teams who put their players through absolutely grueling workouts and games, expect their coaches to be working like 16 hour days for 8 months a year, elite QBs basically study game film every waking moment during the season - basically in glorifying unhealthy work habits in every way. But there are maybe a handful of coaches in the league who understand really basic concepts about clock management, play calling, 4th down decisions, etc.

Iā€™ve also never really gotten a good explanation for why teams donā€™t pass on like 90% of downs. Like, even a bad QB averages 6+ yards per attempt right? And the absolute best RBs might average close to 5 yards per attempt. Maybe as you pass more those numbers start to converge, but we havenā€™t gotten close to that point yet.

It feels very much like how the NBA avoided 3 pointers for decades until everyone realized, basically all at once, that theyā€™re worth an extra point and might be valuable.

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I think there is a legitimate concern with protection when pass rushers can just tee off with zero concern for the rush. You see this in 2:00 situations when the coaches donā€™t do idiotic prevent and actually bring pressure. Theoretically this could be combated with screens and draws. Also I think there is something to getting some rest for your defense (see Chip Kelley Eagles).

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But then the answer to that is draws and screens.

Youā€™re probably right about Y/A numbers but I donā€™t think those include sacks, and thereā€™s gonna be a lot of those if the defense knows the QB is dropping back every play. There has to be at least some fear by the defense that theyā€™re gonna get gashed for 15+ up the middle, ā€œkeeping them honestā€ is at least a little bit of a thing.

Although I donā€™t think teams would really suffer if they essentially called almost nothing but pass plays in the first half, relegating the running game to secondary plays that the QB can audible to when they see something exploitable. Obviously later in games with big leads it would start to make more sense to run and bleed the clock.

How does running the ball get rest for your defense better than passing?

Like is there any evidence that rushing more often gets more first downs? Seems like the opposite would be true.

I was all ready to jump in and answer that but then I was like ā€œWell uh, well err, well you see when you run well ummā€

Wtf

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Iā€™d imagine on running plays your offensive line doesnā€™t have to sustain blocks as long as they do for pass protection.

If you use adjusted net yards per attempt, which penalizes the QB for sacks as well as interceptions (which are obv more common than RB fumbles), itā€™s still the case that basically every QB in the league has a better average than the best RBs. Of course Lamar Jacksonā€™s rushes are more valuable than pretty much any other play.

Isnt it just because running plays keep the clock going the whole time when pass plays stop it with each miss?

That is where I was headed but that does not really impact real time except at halftime and end of game. In other words defenses may rest more game time but actual time would not be much different.

I think defenses really do get worn down if theyā€™re out there for a ton of plays. Passing seems to have higher variance and therefore more very short possessions even though the average pass obviously gains more yards than the average run.

Fair enough, I just sorted by QBs and saw #30 was over 5.0 but that likely included some backups. Iā€™m not sure whether ANY/Att is the better comparison with rushing yards/att or if simple NY/Att would be more accurate.

Nonetheless the point stands, I think. The worst passing offenses in the league are still largely more effective than the best rushing offenses.

Hate almost every line this week but I am sure I will bet something. I bet Titans +10 at the open just because 10 is a lot of points, but Ravens are OP so who knows

Lines atm are
Minnesota +7 -108 vs San Francisco
Tennessee vs Baltimore -9.5 -108
Houston vs Kansas City -9.5 -105
Seattle +4.5 -108 vs Green Bay

But rushing balances your offense. Running the ball just occasionally means that opposing defenses have to game plan for it. This leaves defenses weaker against the pass and increases passing game efficiency.

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both afc games have blowout written all over them.

True. Iā€™d really prefer to advance both the Ravens and Chiefs without playing the games, so we can be sure of no injuries. That game could be even better than last year.

Iā€™d be fine with the Chiefs losing. :smirk:

Doesnā€™t matter. New England is not playing so it is a glorious football weekend.

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Put me down for at least one of the games not decided until the final 2 minutes.

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