After thinking about it more concretely, I guess it’s closer.
Buffalo win very likely gets them Indy in the first round, but it will give them a guaranteed second round home game if they win. That would probably be against Pitt, who would be getting Cleveland in the first round. And then KC would have to face the Tenn/Bal winner.
Buffalo loss very likely gets them Cleveland in the first round as they likely end up #2 anyway due to Pitt resting players. Second round is either Pitt or Tenn, with KC facing either Bal or Tenn.
There are a lot of implicit assumptions in the above, but I think the second path is a bit better than the first. With different assumptions, I guess you could come out the other way.
I had forgotten about the Patriots blowing the playoff bye with a home loss to the dolphins last year.
rest of last year
Houston playing backups did get beatdown by Titans.
Ravens playing backups beat Pittsburgh who was trying since all they needed was win + Ten loss but started some guy named Hodges so idk if that counts.
Vikings playing backups only lost by 2 to Bears.
Bills playing backups lost by 7 to Jets
Raiders who weren’t eliminated yet, lost to Broncos
Aaron Rodgers needed a 4th Q comeback to beat the David Blough 3-12-1 Lions
Color me skeptical of the Browns being -10. Do we even know who will be back yet for the Browns? And they are still putting new players on the covid list today.
And you will never go broke betting on the Browns ability to disappoint their fans in excruciating fashion.
I’m a Browns fan. I think I’ve made 4 NFL bets all year. They were all against the Browns. I am 4-0. I’m on Pitt +10. Please disappoint me monetarily and not emotionally Browns.
glancing at the draft, they either have the same pick or just take the browns draft busts instead. They also had the #1 pick like 3 of those drafts. ended up for some reason passing on Marshall Faulk, which made them take Carter, so Faulk would’ve blown out his knee instead of a hall of fame career.
like this whole notion of tanking in the NFL as a benefit isn’t a thing often. They end up fucking up the draft too. They all passed on watson/mahomes/lamar jackson/rodgers/etc etc etc.
I don’t know why the 5-11 eagles got to pick mcnabb over them at 4-12 though. but they could’ve taken the saints draft so lol them