Yeah but those numbers are going to change when Trump gets back on the stump. “Do you want to risk the economic recovery on someone copying Trump instead of the real deal Donald? I’m a billionaire businessman, he’s a politician copying my style. Who do you trust to end Bidenflaton?”
The “Bachelor’s degree or higher” folks generally want a stabilizing President that cuts their taxes and maintains their cushy situation in society. The “No bachelor’s degree” folks generally want a disruptor to change a bunch of stuff because their lives suck. I don’t think that will change much on on the campaign trail. Relatively affluent, comfortable Republicans are the ones that have the most to lose with Donnie Dumb Dumb fucking stuff up day after day. Some of them are emotionally engaged in the culture war enough that they still line up behind Dear Leader, but a lot of them will be susceptible to narratives about Crazy Trump messing up the good thing that rich Americans have going.
Pretty crazy that 4 years after a race of the two oldest nominees of all time we might get a race between two of the youngest.
Lol, Newsom isn’t going to be the dem nominee.
Its looking increasingly likely that he is going to take a stab at it. Hes been gearing up for this for 20 years. I have a feeling he doesnt want to wait til 28. The amount of money he is spending going directly at Desantis really doesn’t make sense outside of making a run at it.
Hes about to hit his second consecutive year of presiding over a MASSIVE surplus. Its something very easy to point to. “I am running the largest state in the union so well that I get to hand money to the people of California for no raisin other than I rock” is pretty compelling
The Dem field is super fucking bleak. This is the time to shoot his shot.
One early tell will be if the lets the LA mask mandate go back into place. If he’s running then I bet he gets that killed.
Obviously personally I would love to see mask mandates, as I’m all for avoiding covid and making public places safer. Policy wise, it’s a huge loser. I don’t know why Democrats haven’t tried moving on to something perhaps tolerable by more people: mask mandates but only in hospitals, doctor’s offices, pharmacies, and grocery stores. Maybe public transit.
Messaging on that would be: Look, society has decided to live with the virus, but people who are old, immunocompromised, etc, need medical care, medicine, food, and to get where they need to get. Let’s at least look out for the least among us by wearing a mask for the few minutes we’re in these places we can’t avoid - places also that we really can’t have closing down due to staff shortages twice a year.
Who am I kidding, half the country would be like “FUCK YOU SOCIALIST!” and another quarter will do it but be like, “These stupid Democrats with their stupid masks.”
So I guess masks in only the most liberal cities will continue to be the play.
Also my preferred policy choice on a semi-permanent basis. That battle seems very lost, we are just gonna see what unfettered infections do and if life expectancy drops 15 years oh well. If I was running for president in 2024 I certainly wouldnt have the mask outlier spot in my state if at all possible.
It won’t be oh well, it’ll be… WhO cOuLd HaVe PoSsIbLy SeEn ThIs CoMiNg???
15 years almost definitely isn’t happening. If someone has good data on the impact on mortality rates from COVID at different ages, I could use my actuarial super powers to try to calculate the change in life expectancy.
Will check back in with you when we have data on repeated infections.
Repeated infections almost always lead to less severe disease, not more.
Part of the data we’d need is data on the rates of strokes and heart attacks and blood clots. It appears likely at this point that even a mild infection increases the risk of those things for at least a year. So we’d have to find those rates per 100K people by age pre-covid and post-covid, and attribute the increase to covid. Then figure out how much that is taking off life expectancy on top of the immediate fatality rate of a covid infection.
Yes will be interesting for sure. Just keep in mind that US life expectancy improved by 8 years over the half century of 1950 to 2000. So a drop in life expectancy of 15 years would be approximately equivalent to undoing almost a CENTURY of mortality improvement. Covid is bad but I’d be shocked if it’s that bad.
Biden/Harris will be exceptionally weak, it’s almost certain some up and coming guy like Gavin will take a shot in the primary. Probably have quite a few contenders.
Im being hyperbolic with the 15, I think the bad but not tail risk part of the range is like 7-10 years.
Basically we might undo the public health gains from quitting smoking and getting rid of leaded gas.
Maybe. This is preliminary and could be some other correlation. Either way, I’m sure as heck not comfortable with the idea of getting covid over and over again. We still have very little idea what the real long term effects will be.
Says 8-10% of people are getting long COVID, and the rate goes up with subsequent infection.
If it’s 10% holding steady each time, six infections makes it a flip.
Since the risk goes up each time, probably more realistic that 3 or 4 infections makes it a flip.