The Crypto Thread

BTC & LTC bout to rip faces

Good time to take profit on ETH imo

why think this?

Barring catastrophic crypto news, disposable income + public interest leads the role in determining price for this stuff.

Itā€™s a battle between the rise in future catalysts for btc and the inevitable drop in Reese witherspoon (bubble group) attention that will change the price.

Definitely disagree on that. My simple-version view on it is that whales are mostly in control of the market and utilize predictable changes in sentiment for their own benefit.

The general public has had very little interest in bitcoin for months now. You can see clear evidence of this with the recent tiny on-chain transaction volume. When the hype comes back it will be obvious to everyone.

As to why Iā€™m short-medium term bearish on ETHā€¦ a combination of counter-trading overly euphoric sentiment on that side of the market, and a belief that defi is going to face a much tougher regulatory battle than BTC/LTC.

Also, I firmly agree with Dorsey and Wood that bitcoin will eventually be a net positive environmentally. Probably within the next decade imo.

LOL

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An interesting take.

I am still of the belief and appears to still be true that if all beginnner and intermediate traders could devise a program that would unconsciously take the opposite side of what ever trade that they felt compelled to make at the time, theyā€™d rake in money and fuck up the algos.

I think thereā€™s plenty of truth to thatā€¦ but not sure how this belief invalidates the idea that whales control the market moreso than retail.

Iā€™m sure youā€™d agree that strategies that eliminate emotion are definitely the best option for almost everyone when it comes to investing. Retail mostly does the opposite of this, so they mostly lose.

Bitcoin as a net environmental positive within a decade is interesting. Iā€™ve thought it was potentially sooner, because to be a positive it needs to encourage development of renewablesā€“which it can. But the US is aiming to decarbonize its electricity in a decade and generally speaking the trend is towards less fossil fuel, so that seems to be happening anyway. Will anyone care how much energy bitcoin uses if all new energy coming online is renewable?

I think the 2022 energy fix for ETH could be good. Iā€™m staying the course for now and just buying ETH. As said, itā€™s small buys, nothing too exciting, but thatā€™s the plan until it either moons or crashes.

My central thesis is that there is value we (or just me) simply donā€™t understand or see. I canā€™t wrap my head around crypto ETFs and massive companies investing, all the while others say itā€™s a scam going to zero. It could all unravel I guess, but I have to think if crypto is still around in a decade then itā€™s going to be priced a lot higher as narratives change.

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Aged like wine, itā€™s gone 100x since this was posted.

most obvious top ever

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How it started ā€¦

Sure, Iā€™ll join your waitlist?

no more staking from coinbase on that due to the SEC

and look out belowwwwwwwww

Is the bounce back from 40 to 42 dead cat or legit? Kinda seems like it might be a bloodbath when the east coast wakes up

It sure feels like a dead cat to me but if it feels that way to everyone and enough shorts get opened up then maybe itā€™ll moon just to liquidate them all

https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/bitcoin-mining-generates-tonnes-of-e-waste-every-year-says-study-121092100178_1.html#:~:text=Bitcoin%20mining%20generates%20as%20much,Netherlands%2C%20a%20new%20study%20revealed.

It is never going to be a net positive because of the amount of e-waste it generates.

Actually it will incentivize power networks to shift towards renewable energy over time, helping to make fossil fuels comparatively less attractive on a large scale. There will eventually be an inflection point where its e-waste plateaus and then becomes negligible.

Another example of how absurd this narrative is: the high end estimate of 30,700 yearly tons of ewaste produced by bitcoin cited in this article would account for only ~.05% of the entire global amount produced in 2019 (53,600,000 tons)

Can the Lightning network solve the energy use problem? This author compares it to the promissory notes that were used to transfer gold titles. Is mining done for anything other than facilitating transactions? Is my understanding correct that if people start using Lightning more, there will be fewer actual BTC transactions and therefore less mining?

I dont think lightning will have any effect on energy consumption. Other crypoā€™s use proof of stake , BTC uses proof of work, which is where the energy consumption comes into play. Both methodā€™s main function is securing the network.

It just means it is never environmentally a net positive no matter how you spin it. It is just ridiculous to think it can be. The only way it can be a net positive is if bitcoin mining relied on how much carbon a miner can capture.