it doesn’t mean it will follow it again (so I suppose when we look in hindsight it won’t really matter in one sense). Maybe the sell off was too much selling. It gets confusing when people say “top of this cycle” vs “top of the cycle” because more accurate would be “is there going to be a cycle this time (and if so are we at the top of it)”. I also posted this earlier:
I posted a video or two from one of the crypto youtubers I watch, the only one whose technical analysis I find interesting (because he’s a permabear basically), but a recent video is the only time I found myself disagreeing with him strongly. Even though he called this exact scenario (basically he’s always been right) he tried to show the market cycle and lay it over the price chart, even though it doesn’t fit right now for the top (and he kinda quickly glossed over the non-match in the video lol). It fits perfectly for the runs in the past, especially 2017, comically so,
The market cycles repeat down to the 1min micro level, but the problem I have with the theory of perpetual cycles on the macro level is that there is a finite top, that is, the amount of money in the world, and a one million dollar bitcoin sounds less exciting if it comes along with a hyperinflationary money supply.
To quote noted gentleman and scholar Mike Cernovich, hoo boy, wait until you hear about the petrodollar.
Like ok, when I go to Canada and use maple leaves to buy some syrup and hire a beaver tour guide to show me around town, I’m thinking about it in USD and calculating the leaf:dollar exchange rate in my head but that doesn’t mean it’s not all real.
That happened for most of 2019, and then again during the covid crash. Somehow the no coiners end up too distracted spiking the football to ever actually pull the trigger. Cept they don’t play for either team, they just ran on to the field and declared victory. They go away really quick and the rest of us go back to playing.
If you’re not comfy with black box correlations then BTC is probably not for you. You can try to double blind study memetics all day but you’re never going to rationalize why bitcoin “is”, empirically. The important thing is that it is. And it’s spreading. Probably for a long time. There’s very few people with the capacity to synthesize whether the price should go up or down, but that’s sort of irrelevant for now.
Canada is sort of using you as an avatar for a common type of person, and tbf you’re right, it’s not exactly fitting.
We’re talking about the type of people who when bitcoin crashed in 2017-18 they somehow really wanted to believe that everybody who had bitcoin bought it at the exact top and held it down to 4k or whatever. Even if that makes zero sense, in that it’s literally impossible for people to do that during parabolic price action even if they wanted to, in fact the price goes parabolic both ways precisely because that isn’t happening.
Like, nobody bought the runup, the price just magically appeared at 20k, and then likewise it magically fell even though nobody sold. When a reasonably intelligent person chooses being stupid in order to be derisive, that’s some real uncouth shit right there.
I hold a substantial amount of BTC and I’m a pretty big skeptic, like I think it’s basically useless, even though I’m sure blockchain has some sort of future. I tend towards Krugman’s view:
i.e. that it’s a cult and therefore can persist indefinitely even in the absence of any reason for it to be worth anything. The modern globalized world lends itself to cults because everyone can always find a group of people out there who agree with them. Tesla is like that as well.
I’m somewhat curious why you think traditional investing is unethical, but even more curious why you would consider crypto any more ethical. It amounts to taking money out of other people’s pockets and torching vast amounts of fossil fuels to do it.
These are my two biggest problems. Especially the latter. Trying to convince yourself that crypto is some kind of net good while it burns fossil fuels at the rate of entire giant countries for no conceivable real world benefit outside of passing money back and forth (usually in a straight poor to rich pipeline) has to be a mighty stretch mentally
You’re conflating BTC and crypto here, again. It makes your baseless assertions like “no conceivable benefit” come across as spurious and poorly researched.
Money in the stonk market doubles every 8 years historically, I just jam most of my cash in index funds and forget about it. I figure that if the stonk market went to zero there would have to be a lot bigger problems in the world than worrying about money.
Before I even think about putting money into crypto I max index funds in all of the available retirement stuff (401k, IRA, HSA).
Crytpo is an asset I can put some of my extra cash in to make a bit of a riskier portfolio than 100% stocks, which seems appropriate since my investment timeline is so long.
A lot of my goals for investing are spending the least amount of time worrying or looking in to this stuff. That’s why I just go with BTC and ETH for crypto. Yeah you can get gains better elsewhere, but you can also go broke easier elsewhere. There’s also a lot of added stress and time in trading to try and beat the market (BTC/ETH). You have to consider the monetary value of the time lost if you trade and do worse than just holding bluechips, or the monetary value of the time lost if you trade X hours a day and only barely beat the market.
These safe cryptos that require minimal research and understanding (the bluechips) are (to me at least) the analogous version of index funds in the stonk market. You don’t need to read a whitepaper or follow social media stuff about these cryptos (analogous to tracking earnings and profit stuff on individual stonks)
