Because we’ve now seen what it takes to push the price up to 60k and it’s not obvious to me that enough nations are going to repeat the El Salvador experience to drive it all the way to 500k.
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I didn’t say it’s an obvious lock
Well gold dropped about 30% in 08. Silver more than 50%. It all gets rekt if we go into a recession.
I have my guess on the value, but, the honest answer is who knows what happens next.
I do take huge issue with nonsense like that tweet above. Everything crypto is a high risk asset and should be invested in accordingly. Advising to invest in “safe” investments like BTC is malpractice and the kind of thinking that leads to people getting wiped out because, hey, I was in Anchor and Terra for safety.
i’ve followed it for years and after it made the huge jump from $400ish a while back it’s been consistently 1200-1500 and lately has gone higher - I thought it was a traditional retreat asset in times like this, but I’m an economic dunce so I’m seriously just asking curiously.
How would you say it compares to other investments that an average person has access to in El Salvador?
Oh God didn’t realize that is the El Salvador president, makes it even worse.
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This argument gets made a lot but has two big flaws. First, it assumes that cryptocurrencies and blockchains aren’t still being developed and improved. They very much are. Things like zero-knowledge proofs have only recently been made practical in the real world, and the potential uses could be enormous.
Second, blockchains may end up being solutions to problems we don’t have yet, or that so far we haven’t applied them to the right things in the right ways. There have been all sorts of discoveries where the true potential was only realized long after. The rest of the world is evolving right along with cryptographic protocols. We could still be very, very early.
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Also, to be up front here, the reason why I am asking is that there is a long history of people being 100% correct on the importance and impact of emerging technologies while getting the investment thesis dead wrong. See: overall underperformance of a basket of railroad stocks in the 19th century, underperformance of a basket of automobile stocks in the early 20th century, underperformance of ecommerce stocks in the early 21st century.
I voted over 500k, but I also think there’s a 50:50 shot a Big Mac will also cost more than 500k
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OK, so, it’s money. The context of me and danby’s conversation is that we both agreed that it isn’t being used as money. We might be wrong but barging in saying GUYS IT’S MONEY is missing the point. If cryto is widely adopted as actual money used by tons of people online, sure, of course it will have value.
i may be misunderstanding or confusing concepts here - but isn’t public key encryption already doing this and has been for quite some time?
any estimation on nuggets and fries? not a big mac person
How much uncertainty we talking about here? 2008 level crisis, it does ok, not as good as the stock markets. True hyperinflation, better than the hyperinflated currency, sure, but so is everything else.
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The distinction that I personally make is with the word ‘investment’. An investment has to meet the standard of “generates an expected return that can be estimated and modeled”. So things like stocks, bonds, farmland, etc would fall into that category. Other things that don’t meet that criteria like fine art, collectibles, commodities. foreign currency, & crypto would be considered ‘speculative assets’ if they were being held with the primary goal of selling them to someone else for more money.
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I guess this is what I was asking, thanks. That makes sense.
Bout 350K
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It will have value, but not as an investment. For it to work as a currency, it needs to have a constant or predictably decreasing value. Which is the opposite of what you want in an investment. Nothing can work as both.
No, this is much, much more than that. Vitalik has an overview that goes into how it’s done and what’s possible. Zcash was one of the first coins using it, and now Mina Protocol is using it for smart contracts, or will be as soon as they launch their SDK.
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I think there is some amount of disconnect between what BTC can become and what that should reflect in its price moving forward. Kind of like how Tesla could accomplish a lot of it’s “extreme ideas” and still be valued similar or less than what it is now - let alone 10-20x as much. I Think BTC may be an extremity of that.