Don’t own any crypto and don’t have any real interest in it, and agree with you as its value as a hedge. As someone who is 100% equities, I am interested in your personal view on why inflation would likely be harmful to stocks even in the absence of a recession.
edit: the threat of inflation and the tightening reaction by the Fed could tank the market for sure. So, sure, inflation fighting measures are bad for stocks. So if inflation brings restrictive monetary policy, then yeah the stock market is probably hosed.
You think it can’t crash 95% from peak? What’s there to entice value investors to come in and stop a freefall?
Think about who has sold to create the current 40% drop. It’s the last adopters who never really believed anyway. When the crash cuts enough to the bone to make the HODLers start to drop out, it will be a new wave.
To be clear, there could definitely be upswings between now and then, and who knows crypto might even hit a new peak that makes this one look quaint. And maybe it somehow turns into gold and always retains some value. I’m not saying I know what’s going to happen.
All I’m saying is when it starts to freefall it could easily go to zero, because there’s nothing to lure value investors back in. Which is why I won’t buy any.
How much is all this worth at the moment, roughly vs. when he tried to sell in Nov?
It seems kind of weird that he’s not even tweeting pictures of what he’s selling. Like shouldn’t there be an online catalog where I can actually look at the things?
No, I think a 95% crash is extraordinarily unlikely. And it wasn’t new money that just sold. A lot of what happened was leveraged positions being liquidated.
When cardano was at 90cents in 2017 some folks on 22 were talking about wanting it to crash to 10 cents so they could back the truck up. It dropped to 4 cents and nobody touched it for years. It will be that way again.
Who knows how much he’s bullshitting, but supposedly he dumped all this Trump betting haul into 100% crypto. Surely he must have like high seven or eight figures if he cashed out now.
Based on not limiting my knowledge of cryptocurrencies and blockchains to what I learned about BTC 8 years ago plus maybe something about monkey jpeg’s and thinking that’s all there is to know. There are far too many people investing significant time and money in real projects for everything to just go away the way you seem to think will happen.
If crypto crashes 90% it will be because everyone will have moved on to the new virtual reality sex and have no desire or money left to buy bitcoin at 4000.
Then you should be able to explain to me what will lure value investors back in to BTC if it falls 50% from peak, then 60%, then 70%, then 80%, then 90%. At what point do value investors step in and why? I can at least give you a ballpark estimate for when a value investor will step in to buy a house, or a stonk, when prices are in freefall.
All I see currently is people buying in because they expect more people to buy in later and drive the price up. You can rail all you want about me not understanding technicalities. But I can see the forest for the trees, and that is the definition of a pyramid scheme.
This is nothing like the early days of the internet where anyone with a modicum of vision could instantly see the inherent value. No one can explain why BTC should be $60k w/o a bunch of mumbo jumbo. So I don’t buy that analogy at all.
I can see BTC or another coin could have value as a currency. I’m not saying crypto is inherently worthless. But BTC as a currency and BTC as a “I hope more people buy after me to drive the price up” speculative investment - seem inherently at odds with each other.
Until the speculators are gone, I don’t see how it can succeed as a currency. Once the speculators are gone, what’s the price? Who knows? But I don’t see why it couldn’t be $1000/BTC or $100/BTC or $1/BTC. Or BTC dies and some other coin actually works as a functional currency.
