FYP
3 Likes
Exactly, i think that was my point but my brain is super fuzzy right now. Not a good sign for team hope no covid
@Surf posted the 1D graphs of SPDR and ETH. My point was that nearly all of the coins (obv exclude stablecoins) go down in the short term when the stock market is drilling, not just the major coins. Somebody could have said the same thing about ETH (âThis just looks like a more volatile index fundâ) in the plateau leading up to its enormous runup beginning on or about summer of 2020.
1 Like
Interesting read. Poses the question of what happens politically to all the libertarian crypto investors when/if the bubble bursts.
Theyâll do what they always do. Whine and nothing else.
Theyâll go back to being goldbugs, obviously.
Yeah, in the last three big dips of the stock market, crypto crashed even harder than the stock market. If youâre looking for a hedge against stock market crashes the best option is long term government bonds. Government bonds are reliably anticorrelated with the stock market and long term bonds are the most volatile, which paradoxically helps you because theyâll rise the most when the stock market tanks.
Yeah, this is my issue with crypto today, I think the mainstream assets are highly correlated/risk on assets that get slaughtered if inflation murders the stock market. Might not be the case if you are just going to buy and hold for 50 years or something, but it is a horrible hedge if you think the equity markets are bubbles.
But would inflation necessarily murder the stock market? Stagflation did but that was the recessions that kept the stocks down, right? If there was moderate inflation with a booming economy the stock market would probably do fine.
1 Like
Put me in the camp that the crypto crash will either cause or be caused by a wider market collapse, or be caused by, then cause an even bigger market collapse. It wonât be a fun time. Which is why coming into this thread to dunk wonât be fun either.
Crypto, a portfolio of inherently worthless online tokens, is already sustained almost entirely by myth. Its value proposition is so inscrutable that when it melts down, almost any narrative could be crafted to plausibly explain it. It was the Fed! The government! The leftists who hate entrepreneurialism! It was the dark and devious forces of the shadowy deep state! Anything will do. It will enforce the priors of those who placed their faith in crypto as a good substitute for the American dream â a crowd of Barstool Sports readers and tech libertarians and the types of people who used to buy silver bars from Alex Jones before they turned to Bitcoin. The crypto-evangelist population skews heavily towards a sort of New Age libertarian, anti-government right wing-ism, and when they see their financial dreams evaporate, they will likely set their sights for revenge on the things they already despise. The broad effect will lead to a large number of newly angry, bitter, disillusioned, hopeless people who are too steeped in the culture wars to turn towards working class solidarity, and instead turn towards hate.
The specifics of these changes, of course, are unpredictable. But I feel safe saying that, when history looks back in hindsight, it will see crypto as a gargantuan bubble that â as capitalism always does â wiped out the finances of tons of small people who could not afford to be wiped out, and left the rich mostly intact, all because it was able to convince regular people to believe that this time was different. The delusion that salvation from capitalism can be found in new, more clever capitalism is incredibly seductive, and always wrong. Letâs hope that we snap out of it before itâs too late.
4 Likes
Good to know that angry white incels, who I assume make up a decent percentage of libertarian crypto bros, only whine and never do that things like go on mass shooting sprees.
1 Like
IDK. My personal view is yes for various reasons, but was just speaking to crypto as a hedge against inflation risk. If you are bulled up about risk assets, go nuts with crypto.
Crypto markets have tanked 40% in the past 60 days and youâre all talking about what happens when it crashes? Um, this is it. The volatility was always baked in. Sorry it canât be more apocalyptic.
1 Like
Still up 16% from a year ago, I think it has to drop a bit more before we really call it a crash.
The Polk podcast was pretty interesting IMO. If the US Stock Market has a 40T market cap, what should crypto be? Or if gold is 5-10T, what should BTC be? Or does rational and value even matter?
Kinda thinking of buy gold/silver in anticipation of libertarian bros jumping back into those markets.
1 Like
Whatâs happening right now has already happened several times, including as recently as last summer.
Right, Iâll wait until awice gives up before declaring this the Big Crypto Crash or whatever. Maybe it skyrockets tomorrow, who can say.
1 Like
well rational and value all of crypto would be at least 50% lower than it is now. Itâs priced like a big growth stonk. ie your TSLAâs of the world that are already assumed to be the dominant car company when itâs still nowhere close.
okay not as pumped as TSLA but you get the point
1 Like