i like the sad implication that one doesn’t start paying attention to politics until they have children and a mortgage on a nice but sensible family home
I think Clinton has a stronger claim to the presidency than Harris.
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GA looking like a nah given the 47k value BUT the percentage here is a share of overall vote totals for the county, not that of mail-in.
https://twitter.com/AllisonClausen/status/1324447827964030976
Not really following the freakout. The estimate has been ~50k since it went to 15k or whatever. It’s still a 63/37 split needed.
I suppose it’s also possible that Cuse is right and there are a ton of ballots getting thrown out for the naked ballot issue, and that as a result we could actually be fucked in PA. That could explain why the totals aren’t increasing with the ballots counted going down.
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The freak out is that the denominator keeps dropping in all of these states without the numerator changing at all.
These Canadians are getting pretty mouthy. USA #1 bros, after we replay the Civil War how about another crack at 1812?
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Georgia deficit just ticked down to 12,764. Still need a big move.
Can you show me where/when anyone ever thought there was ~60k votes in GA left to count with a 13k difference?
The good news is, I just ran through every county in this chart (ignoring the smaller ones below it), and until you get to Mercer, Biden is basically 70%+ in the existing mail-in count. In most cases 75%+. In Mercer/Blair/Carbon he is 60%+.
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From a time spent counting ballots to a results analysis, since about 10 this morning Biden in PA has made up a 38k deficit. If they really expect to finishing counting tonight and Biden still has to make up 109k…
I’m pretty sure there’s a decent sized delta between counted and reported going right now. That’s the only thing that makes any of these numbers make sense. They’re telling us how close they are to done physically counting and the results of that counting are lagging way behind because incompetence.
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@JordanIB OK, I think that dashboard is an accurate figure of outstanding mail ballots as of around 1:30 today.
So there were ~369k outstanding and a gap of ~114k at that time. Meaning the balance need to go 66% or better for Joe to catch up.
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I hadn’t been paying attention to Erie County, but it’s a Dem leaning county overall so we should crush that sample of ballots pretty hard too. 17K left there.
There are also 14K left in Monroe, we’re running at -3% there overall so we should do pretty well with those too. Conservatively, it should be 65-35 or 70-30.
Remain calm everyone, PA is going to be fine.
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Shit I completely forgot about that stupid privacy sleeve nonsense. I really hope those totals are not counting the sleeveless ones that are getting thrown out
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Alright checking out for a while this is too much bbl
I assumed those were already tossed and are not included in these numbers. If potential naked ballots are included in these numbers, I’d be pretty nervous it would come down to the 11/3 to 11/6 sample and go to the courts.
I saw some reporting hours ago saying that was a less significant issue than expected and there were only a couple of thousand of those total.
One of the cultural shocks I had when I moved to the US was that the US thinks they won the war of 1812. I’d always learned that it was effectively a draw and that as it stopped US expansion into (future) Canada it was called a win by us.
Edit: Wikipedia probably sums it up best:
And Donald Trump overcomes the odds again.
Goddamn you America. Goddamn you so fucking much.