The 2020 Election: Delaying the Inevitable

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There only being 80k ballots in Philly is concerning. Best case scenario that nets 64k. Assuming itā€™s true that thereā€™s 35k in Alleghany, that probably nets another 28k or so. We still need there to be ballots elsewhere.

Potentially relevant to the faithless elector sub-thread:

https://twitter.com/rw_briggs/status/1324434235374116865

https://twitter.com/rw_briggs/status/1324435624514957312

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It was the fucking secretary of state who provided that number! Her job is to know and provide correct information, ffs.

The PA SoS update that says 370K ballots remaining has 91K outstanding for Philly.

This is just mail-in. Does not include provisionals.

But Dave and Nate and Nate said we were on pace! sadface sadface.

Yeah they never make mistakes

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Fuck off. Your smug bullshit is not wanted right now.

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Why and o why is no one talking about NC? Not a peep out of there since last night!

I assume all PA ballots are randomly distributed and weā€™re not seeing a phenomenon of ā€œlaterā€ ballots breaking more for Trump.

https://twitter.com/sjaejones/status/1324443027612540929?s=20

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Itā€™s also possible Philly has counted some but that they havenā€™t been posted in the totals yet. That would indicate a dump of 11K ballots from Philly soon.

Hereā€™s the list by county, that ties to the 369K outstanding number. (Sorted by # left to count)

image

They have counted everything they have. Absentees there can arrive until 11/12 and will be counted and posted then.

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This is really 100% of the damn problem. The PA Dems really should be updating us every 15 minutes on twitter instead of feeding it out one piece at a time to random reporters.

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What percentage of provisional ballots are counted?

Also whatā€™s up with Nevada?

So Biden needs to win them 65/35. Doesnā€™t look like heā€™s winning this by 100k votes unless thereā€™s a huge amount of provisionals out there as well. Still on track to win though.

My theory on why nevada is so slow is that covid has turned their brains into mush

Nevada is using a martingale system to tally the votes.

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This is all annoying for me because I have three scenarios
Trump wins - WAAVF and I lose some money
Biden wins + Biden PA - WAASLF and I win a little money
Biden wins + Trump PA - WAASLF and I win lots of money

Iā€™m greedy and selfish so I have some divided loyalties here.

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