Yeah, I agree, 75 percent of not philly is good, unless it was one of the philly burbs, then it’s fair.
Don’t worry. It was awesome, totally awesome.
These fuckers are so confident they’ll say everything… except that it’s over. Tells me in the back of their minds they wonder if they’re missing something. They were much more declarative about MI as it was happening than they are about PA.
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
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Encourage some of you to relax a bit. The slow information drip seems to be causing a crazy high level of anxiety.
Current facts:
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Biden campaign more confident than yesterday on reaching 270
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Trump campaign in shambles trotting out Giuliani and hack lawyers for TV appearances while continuing to beg for 1000% match donations.
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Biden wins Gorgia with room to spare if remaining votes to be counted continue at same percentage.
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Biden has outperformed Hillary by 2-4 points in several (relatively) high population counties in PA after Ds lost the state by less than one point in 2016.
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There is still not a single reasonable argument towards Trump winning Nevada other than pure hopium.
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AP and Fox News have still not retracted their AZ for Biden call despite all the time in the world to do so.
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Register by December 7th I believe.
Ugh, back in. After this race, never again, never again.
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Yesterday the GA workers took a lunch break, no results were announced for 2 hours and the R price on Predictit went up by 15c. Basically the point is the R optimism is based on absolutely nothing and we should not worry until actual bad news comes out.
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If there are 400K votes left and Biden takes every one, he’d have 51.3% of the votes. Saying he’s on track to win by possibly 3 or 4 seems nuts to me.
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Ok I made a spreadsheet, Biden won the most recent update 75/25.
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Another small update
| Candidate | Update 1 | Update 2 | Update 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 3,218,645 | 3,224,104 | 3,224,130 |
| Biden | 3,071,780 | 3,088,402 | 3,088,475 |
| Gap | 146,865 | 135,702 | 135,655 |
| Votes added | 22,081 | 99 | |
| Change in Gap | (11,163) | (47) |
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61,367 O/S ballots in GA
99 votes at a time PA? Fuck off.
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was a combination of someone on twitter claiming it was over on their side and I think some idiots somewhere believed that there were less ballots left than the margin.
I had it +1k joe when I went to sleep but now I have no idea at all.
Actually I was wrong. More helpful than change in gap vs votes dropped is simply Biden share of votes dropped.
Here’s a current list of counties in PA that I expect to have significant additional vote coming in, along with their current vote tallies so we can compare when new votes are dropped to see where they came from:
(Starting from Eastern PA and working our way westward)
Philadelphia County: Biden 488,491 Trump 116,526 (81% reporting) updated 12:08 PM
Delaware County: Biden 179,690 Trump 109,701 (83% reporting) updated 1:35 PM
Bucks County: Biden 183,099 Trump 175,467 (89% reporting) updated 2:38 PM
Berks County: Biden 89,530 Trump 105,941 (93% reporting)
Lehigh County: Biden 72,663 Trump 73,321 (77% reporting) updated 2:13 PM
Monroe County: Biden 31,261 Trump 33,168 (80% reporting)
Luzerne County: Biden 62,983 Trump 84,649 (95% reporting)
Centre County: Biden 38,978 Trump 35,849 (85% reporting)
Cumberland County: Biden 40,234 Trump 67,021 (77% reporting)
York County: Biden 85,323 Trump 143,260 (97% reporting)
Blair County: Biden 14,628 Trump 41,824 (89% reporting)
Indiana County: Biden 12,475 Trump 27,832 (93% reporting)
Cambria County: Biden 21,293 Trump 47,386 (95% reporting)
Clarion County: Biden 4,615 Trump 14,363 (94% reporting)
Armstrong County: Biden 7,130 Trump 26,105 (85% reporting) updated 1:42 PM
Westmoreland: Biden 69,110 Trump 127,316 (94% reporting)
Allegheny County: Biden 396,042 Trump 267,838 (94% reporting)
Erie County: Biden 58,742 Trump 62,384 (83% reporting) updated 12:15 PM
Crawford County: Biden 6,053 Trump 24,180 (72% reporting)
Mercer County: Biden 14,425 Trump 32,213 (73% reporting)
Lawrence County: Biden 15,557 Trump 29,071 (95% reporting)
Beaver County: Biden 37,389 Trump 53,886 (96% reporting)
So Biden needs roughly 2/3 of the remaining Georgia vote.
KEY RACE ALERT - Biden gets 73 of 99 new PA votes.
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