CNN just said Bucks has 28,000 left. But per the SoS results sites, they have 43K left to count.
This is incredibly frustrating.
No, there are not. Thatās the point Jordan is trying to make. The sources citing that number are simply out of date.
Thatās a static report from 9pm last night.
look when it was updated though: 11/4/2020 at 9:14:29 PM
Thatās as of 9:15. It hasnāt updated since then. You have to go into the county by county numbers and add them up.
Is there a distinction between votes that have been āprocessedā (say by the local elections office), and votes that have been tabulated? I think in some cases in GA at least, that is where we are getting discrepancies.
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I wanna say Trumpās lead was like 190k at 9pm last night? Seems likely not that many ballots have been added since then.
And when you do the county by county thing, well at a point in time earlier it was 488K ballots left and people crunched the numbers and Biden continuing to win mail-ins at the same rate would be an 80K victory. But I donāt know if anyone has broken down what the mail-in win rates are in each county outstanding. 80K should be a comfortable win still, but itās not the mortal lock it appeared to be with 700K outstanding.
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This seems like the most logical explanation. Many counties were still counting votes overnight, but the state office went home and went to sleep and yes they deserve sleep. So we have sporadic reports of counting and not all of those votes have necessarily been thrown into the total. I think we will probably have more clarity later in the day. Even if you go by the margin Biden was down by at 9:15 heās still favored to win the state by 90k+, more than 1%. Iām not gonna freak out about uncertainty because all indications we have had thus far are that this thing is in the bag
Yeah, at this point what Trump is drawing live to for a win is the number of outstanding ballots to still be wrong and even lower than we think. Itās possible unfortunately, but Biden still the favorite, and also Trump needs to additionally then fade Georgia, and also reclaim the lead in Arizona. Biden still has to be in the high 90s to be president, but yeah, I wish we were higher.
Can anyone extrapolate that to what Biden has gained, how much is left, etc? I have no priors to compare that to.
Right, agree with all this. Like Biden is still a big fave even without PA so itās always going to be high 90s overall still, but itās just disconcerting to see any path at all open up in something that looked locked up.
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Yeah, itās a little hard to tell because I didnāt write down what the old numbers were. But it looks like these results only show a couple thousand more votes counted compared to what NYTimes had up.
God damnit, some news organization get off their asses and plug the new philly numbers in. Jesus Christ already.
In PA, Iām not sure. The reason I was able to see the discrepancies is because the SoS reports ānumber of ballots castā on one page, and āvotes tabulatedā on another. Votes Cast minus Votes Tabulated = Votes remaining to be counted. Iām not sure where the discrepancy would creep in. Thereās no āvotes we have counted but not tabulatedā table.
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Well if thatās the full Philly dump then thatās bad.
OK they just refreshed the numbers again. So looks like they arenāt done with the dump.
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