I read that a factor in that is college students not in the state because of COVID.
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Guys no one knows how many ballots are left in PA or GA. Catching up on this thread and reading the 800 different calculations based on various outdated numbers almost gave me a stroke.
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Not sure of the relevance of your post, but itâs worth reminding you of the vote your country had on becoming independent by removing the Queen of another country as your head of state, and how you bottled it.
/derail
You have to go county by county but itâs definitely possible to use the PA SoS site to see how many mail ins were cast and how many have been reported in the vote total so far.
Why are we listening to Nateâs expert opinion on anything?
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Phil. 140k outstanding votes - mail + in person so who knows how this breaks down.
Lol I hear you. All these numbers are great but with all the different ones floating around all I can conclude is that no one really knows what is going on.
Much like the 2nd Amendment couldnât contemplate a world of bump stocks and regular school shootings, the 1st Amendment couldnât contemplate a world that includes Facebook. Freedom of the press and free speech were designed to broaden societal knowledge of reality, but they are know being used to defend misinformation delivered through tools that by design manipulate weaknesses in human psychology. The US probably needs major constitutional reform, but i canât see that happening until after the country hits rock bottom. Sadly, I donât think Trump was rock bottom. The US is really still coasting on its accumulated wealth and political influence. I think anyone that wants to know what the US is going to look like in the next decade should probably be studying previous empire collapses, but most people wonât. Hubris is a helluva drug.
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I get it is popular to trash him because he is a bit of a douche but you do realize he didnât collect a single poll right? He is not to blame for the polling error.
Wow you got me. Australia has suffered through the economic and social consequences of retaining that tyrant Elizabeth for years.
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Excellent post A+
This is literally my only hope for the country, that the cult of idiocy is propping up R numbers in this election and then vast swaths of rural areas will just forget about elections moving forward. Still Dems have done a poor job of motivating people other than âwe gotta get rid of Trump!â
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Everyone here is overthinking Pennsylvania. The folks that have come in so far outnumber the votes left to count by a margin of 2 to 1. We have a large enough sample size to know how was the rest of the votes will play out: Biden +38.
There are 765,000 votes left to count.
Doing the math, that gives Biden a win of (~2%) or 140k.
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This wonât happen if the US doesnât reign in Facebook and other low cost channels for spreading hate and fear.
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Not to derail too much but I have mixed opinions on Nate. Statisticians who just want data to work with but donât care about the integrity or method it was collected are the nut low. Nate at least tries to to compensate and weight pollsters accordingly, which I guess is better than nothing.
Although we are at sort of an inflexion point with polling. Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a trend. 2024 will be the real test if polling is just totally fucked or if itâs salvageable.
Continuing the theme apparently last night the Georgia SoS didnât know how many ballots were left.
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324346056499486720?s=19
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Yep this key. If Biden hangs on he can instruct his DOJ to cause all kinds of (appropriate) issues for Facebook. That will never happen, of course, but he could do it if he wanted to.
The PA Secretary of State (website) disagrees.
Yep and wall street knows this, FB stock up 10% since Tuesday with more to come tonight.