The best thing going on is Arizona Nevada also still counting and really negates the idea that we should just stop counting. Cause as the map sits, Biden wins.
They canāt say stop counting in PA and GA but keep it up AZ and NV. Well they can, but it massively weakens if not completely negates any argument they are trying to make.
Yeah I didnāt know wtf you were talking about but Iām getting it now. Not great news, should still mean Biden is very much favoured for the state but itās not as padlocky as it had looked.
Yeah I think those are the win rate assumptions that we have been working with, and Bidenās actual win rate in mail in votes has comfortably exceeded the threshold so far.
why did my F5 key just break?
Iām a nervous wreck, but I take the 538 post to be good news. He is pretty measured and says āmore than 460k mail outstandingā. With that wording, I take the 460k to be some known minimum of outstanding mail ballots. If Biden wins 68%, he takes the lead, and 68% would be worse than heās been performing so far.
ETA: That 538 post is not Nate, btw, which I find more comforting than if it were lol.
I just checked some random Trumpy districts - +25 and +45 - and Biden got 60% of the mail-in vote there. I think you have to go to the SUPER Trumpy districts (like +60 and above) until Trump finally wins the mail vote. I just hope there arenāt enough of those 60% Biden districts left to pull the average down.
It sounds like the experts are confident there isnāt. (Wouldāve been nice if the 538 guys just gave us the % that he already got where those 480K are left.) I just want to see the numbers populate already and have this clown out of my life.
In 2018 nanodaughter was a poll worker and got like $150 or so. It also fulfilled some community work requirement they had at her HS.
This certainly varies by state.
Not sure if this is the right thread for it. But I canāt stop thinking about the fact that over 70 million Americans for Trump. How is this possible? I canāt understand it, it has me shook.
Wait, so I went to bed with a comfortable 100-200k win in PA almost assured by all the key folks and now itās a real sweat again?
The nice thing is that those counties have like 10K total people so probably like 250 outstanding mail-in or something like that. (completely made up numbers)
Bob Casey still says >100k win.
Yeah, those numbers are useless. Itās fog of war at this point. Nobody knows.
So Philly and Nevada both supposed to update at 9 eastern???
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