I asked this yesterday and it’s not clear. I don’t know for sure.
1 Like
Feel free to ignore, but I’m going to continue to beat the drum of my PA concern:
I’d like to see some real #'s on PA from someone who knows what the hell they’re talking about or else I’m starting to get worried about it being very close there.
“Down 165K with 763K ballots left” seemed to be the convention wisdom last night. It’s wrong. That 763K number is from the PA SoS update at 9PM showing what remained to be counted. It includes 46,000 mail-ins from Allegheny, which are now counted, in the vote total, with the deficit at 165K. I checked 2 other counties - Philly and Bucks - where the outstanding mail ballot total equal what was in the 763K spreadsheet, but I haven’t gone through them all. Hopefully there are no more Allegheny examples out, but that one makes it clear that there are definitely less than 763K outstanding. How many less? No idea. Nobody has done the work.
Everyone saying “I see a 100K-200K Biden win there” hasn’t shown their math. I realize my math is incomplete, but at lest I’m doing some.
3 Likes
Rudy is in Philly, was just on the local news (maybe it was from earlier??). Whining how not a single republican has seen these mail-in ballots. But lol of course their are partisan poll watchers in the room. They did a story about it on the 6:00 news last night. D/R/I all have someone in the counting room AFAIK
They would need to break for Biden 68-32. Not impossible at all.
There are also provisional and military ballots possibly. The Georgia race is going to be a source of fun for days!
That works out to 68.2% as the bar to clear (55K out and 18,540 deficit).
It’s weird I can’t figure it out from google. Seems clear day of poll workers are volunteers but I can’t figure out if counters are too.
I am not doing anything other that using the % of votes in.
(Total of votes so far divided by % of votes in) - Total of votes so far
The vast majority of poll workers and counters are paid. I promise. The partisan observers might be volunteers or might be paid by campaigns.
I’m not an expert so I’m calmed by the fact that of the dozens of sources I follow I can’t find one that isn’t outright saying or at least suggesting the state will go to Biden.
Whose number are you using for % of vote in? If NYT, it is WRONG.
The fact that Rudy is desperate to stop the count is all you need to know?
1 Like
Data point 1: Trump is the base
Data point 2: The base is protesting counting where Trump is behind, but not where he’s ahead
2 Likes
Nevada should have the guys who colour up at break during the WSOP in the count house. This shit would be over!
8 Likes
AP says 98% with the same totals (NYT and CNN both said 96%.
If 98% then 59.4% is breakeven
So lets assume the 50,000 and he needs 68.2. I think he’s been overperforming that so far, but it depends on what county, but with it all being mail-in he’s got a decent shot. Flopped a flush draw and an over card so to speak.
I don’t think it comes down to Georgia, it would be nice. The important thing there is Perdue.
That would be 68% of 460,000 to take the lead.
Checked some more of the largest counties:
York (SoS update was 77K - 64K have been counted already!) and Chester (SoS was 42K left to count - only 3K are left to count).
So just taking Allegheny, Chester, and York - that’s at least 150K lopped off that 763K number going around last night.
Edit: Seeing @AllTheCheese’s xpost of 538. Thank you for that. Exactly what I’ve been trying to say. If everyone’s super secure in knowing they need 68% of the remaining ballots, or let’s say 75% for a “comfortable” win, well, then I guess you have far fewer nerves than I do.
1 Like
agree on Perdue getting below 50%