765k votes left and 70% of mail in ballots statewide are democrat.
There are 100k votes left in Philly which are like 90% Biden.
Biden is winning by 200k + votes.
1 Like
Been called. He declared himself winnar. More convincingly than Trump imo.
OK, so I donāt think weāre going to make it home, but itās possible Carville wasnāt completely off his rocker about Alaska.
Thereās believed to be at least 133K outstanding, Biden needs about 71.5% to win. Whatever, who caresā¦
The Senate is running at a slight undervote, itās getting about 95% of the turnout of the presidential race. So 126K outstanding. Gross needs 71.3%.
If, and I think this is a big if, that mail-in vote skews hard blue like it has in some other states, he could have a shot. I donāt think heās going to be able to run at 3 to 1 in this sample, though. But the deadline for the ballot to be received is 11/13.
If turnout is up from 60% to 70%, weād expect an extra 38K to still be trickling in. That gets the undervoted Senate race outstanding amount to 162K ballots. Then Gross would only need 66.6%.
I mean, weāve gotta have at least a 5% shot here, maybe a little higher. We just might bink a Senate seat out of thin air.
5 Likes
oh great alaska. thatās what i want to be crunching now.
6 Likes
https://twitter.com/JoeDanaReports/status/1324220510129979392?s=20
Look who showed up at the festivities
Was anyone paying any attention to Alaska in advance, do we have a shot at binking 66-72% of the mail-in vote there? Is the partisan skew strong on the mail vote there? Itās notoriously hard to poll and doesnāt really correlate to anything. Gross isnāt conceding, but his short video wasnāt super convincing. I feel like if we needed 60-40 we might feel good. This feels like a tough lift, but not impossible. Weāve all been two outed before. Letās two out Mitch for a change!
Thatās the dude who has like six siblings, who all endorsed his opponent, right?
2 Likes
I have 10% left and Biden behind by 200K
89% are in and Biden is behind by 136,000
Iām going to bed, send me off happy cuse, shipping PA tomorrow?
Yes.
Idk what the sharpie thing is. Donāt want to know.
Yep
Based on nothing other than thinking about it for 20s, Iād guess that mail in votes are less likely to skew heavily D in AK. Or at least as heavily as elsewhere. All of AK is essentially the middle of nowhere. Getting to a place to cast an in person vote must be a pain in the ass. I also assume itās cold AF right now. I figure many Trump voters found mail to be a convenient way to avoid the misery of voting in person.
1 Like
Weāre definitely shipping it. My o/u is like 8pm to pull into the lead. So 18 hours from now. Itās an educated guess obviously timing of counts is very hard to predict.
1 Like
How much cushion 50k? 100?
4 Likes
I tend to agree, but Iām going to still say at least a 5% shot. Theyāve drilled a few of those on us, letās get them back.
1 Like
Earlier my guesstimate was 75-150K. To be completely honest, Iām so confident in it that Iām not paying a ton of attention to the vote trickling in. Iāve got my bets in, Iām not pulling them. We won PA.
3 Likes
Alright gnight and godspeed Pennsylvania
1 Like
Could be lower if SCOTUS blocks the 11/3-11/6 arriving votes, could be a bit higher if theyāre allowed.