It was a weird saying for this crowd, but given the degree I got I believe in it on a few levels.
1 Like
So, CA-50 is basically at the exact same point we were at this time in 2018. we are down 4% right now, with more than 20% of the vote still to count.
Some notable differences. Because of covid and no precinct-level in person voting, we actually donāt know how many ballots remain to be counted from specifically CA-50. There are currently 370k for SD county, plus who knows how many in Riverside county, plus whatever hasnāt arrived yet because people put them in the mailbox yesterday morning. So projecting turnout and forecasting is basically impossible.
Like Nevada, our country registrar decided to sit around and eat bon bons today or something, and arenāt releasing another update until 5 pm tomorrow.
My life for the next two weeks will be observing the counting and helping cure ballots. CA-50 tends to lag overall turnout by a few %. SD county is estimating 80-83% turnout. If we bake in lower turnout in the 50th to say, 77%, that leaves roughly 70k ballots to count. Plus whatever Temecula has. Having a two-county district makes everything annoyingly complex and harder to predict, because of course Riverside county does things completely differently than SD county 
.
11 Likes
My confidence in AZ all along has been based on the APās impeccable record. I was not heavy on AZ at the onset last night, but once the AP called it and doubled down, I just trust them.
They not only stood by it, they doubled down. They had to be at like 99.9 or higher to do that.
If they miss, they miss, itās a brutal beat. Weāve still got the electoral college.
1 Like
Yeah I have a few deplorable Facebook people, none of them are overtly past the qanon horizon or anything, but they definitely have friends who are and the comments Iām seeing are wild
This is a really good data point, I admit, but I think the discussions the Nates and others are having on Twitter mean that thereās no way itās 99.9%.
Mason Malmuth is an entire level that I agree with his dad on. An entire level. There are a few levels but Mason is on his own all by himself and itās the size of a large parking garage.
MM thinks that if youāre good at imagining algebra problems you can manifest what you want to be into reality. It does not work like that.
1 Like
I am going with the Fox News guy who said the standard deviation didnāt mathematically allow for Trump to recover within the margin of error.
I canāt find the gif or video but itās like that clip of Biden debating Paul Ryan in 2012. Paul Ryan made some grand pronouncements to ensure American economic success. Biden laughed in his fucking face, then turned to the moderator and said, āNot. Mathematically. Possible.ā
1 Like
Iām confused as to how stats nerds could ruin chess or go? Maybe computer nerds?
1 Like
Itās the tools and methods from statistics that make machine learning possible that accounts for recent leaps in computers dominating in those games. Itās not computers per se, like the hardware is mostly the same.
TBF, seems less volatile than the S&P 500.
18 Likes
Iāve been watching FOX for the last hour plus. Just switched to CNN because I couldnāt take it. They are most definitely playing along. At least Tucker is.
Ok this is something I should know more about. You can see my confusion in that chess and go donāt have a stochastic component.
Guys big update on fake ballots. Apparently the department of homeland security included āisotopic watermarksā on the real ballots, so the hundreds of thousands of fake ballots that the dems printed will be caught very quickly.
(This was a real comment I saw just now.)
6 Likes
DId Nate shut the needle off for Georgia? It hasnāt moved even though results are trickling in.
ā¦ but only in PA, NC, and GA
3 Likes
3 Likes
Maybe they were smashing PredictIt all night. :)
Holy crap, Biden of eight years ago is a lot different. Father Time is just brutal.
5 Likes
LETS FUCKING GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324162245174198274?s=21
10 Likes