The 2020 Election: Delaying the Inevitable

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

@anon3530961

twitter.com

Nate Cohn (Nate_Cohn)

Deleted two prior tweets about today’s results in Pima County, since they appear to include straggling Election Day precincts–not just late mail. That makes the results better for Biden. twitter.com/pimaarizona/st…

Official Pima County @pimaarizona

The Pima County Elections Department this afternoon counted about 5,354 early ballots and the remaining precincts from Nov. 3. Results have been updated on the web. Meanwhile, the Pima County Recorder has continued to verify early ballots dropped off at polling places Nov. 3.

1:36 AM - 5 Nov 2020 540 50

Holy fuck the swongs in this thread.

[pvn]

@CaffeineNeeded

Am I crazy? I’m reading that tweet as ‘polls will be ‘right’ on a ton of states, but the margin was way off and that’s a better measurement’

Yeah that’s probably why he meant and it’s in line with criticism he has had of polls in the past

[MichaelDavis]

The data I based that on was wrong. But it’s still not over.

[JordanIB]

This election is going to kill me.

[MichaelDavis]

I mean I was at 99% Biden and I’m down to like 97% now and I feel like absolute dogshit.

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

@MichaelDavis

The data I based that on was wrong. But it’s still not over.

Paging @anon38180840. @anon38180840 please report to the thread.

[anon38180840]

@MrWookie

Looks like the math is baselessly assert that the in person election day vote total will match the lingering mail in votes and show that if true, it’ll be a little more than what Trump needs to win. It’s silly, of course, to make that assumption, but that’s their math.

Math they do to make themselves feel better.

[Lawnmower_Man]

Dunno what that is.

[JordanIB]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324164360017686528?s=21

[anon38180840]

@Riverman

McCain STONE COLD gets me absolutely every time, just laughed out loud for a solid 20 seconds.

Imagine if you could just teleport into the White House with a tablet. “Mr. President, we have an update on your chances in Arizona.”

Then show him that and watch the meltdown.

[mukdukaluk]

Just goes to show that direct democracy needs to happen wayyyyy more!

[6ix]

@suzzer99

https://mobile.twitter.com/JoyAnnReid/status/1324099696466501633

Dissing Lil Pimp calling him old wtf

i think she meant ol’ dirty wayne

[pvn]

@Lawnmower_Man

one of those cults Negreanu and Esfandiari were in.

Wait what

[dlk9s]

@MichaelDavis

I mean I was at 99% Biden and I’m down to like 97% now and I feel like absolute dogshit.

It’s like being up 6-2 in the 9th with one out, but your closer has walked two guys.

[boredsocial]

I do NOT have almost an entire degree in lying with numbers. You take that back.

[suzzer99]

Seems similar - cult-like self-help thing. I’ve had friends get into it. I met a bunch of them once - total non-blinkers.

[anon38180840]

@j8i3h289dn3x7

What do you use? Because my attempts to log into predictit were useless last night. I gave up.

PredictIt. I had a lot down last night, then in the wee hours I rolled over my popular vote, house, pop vote margin bets I won into WI, MI, PA, etc when I was like supremely confident in them.

[RiskyFlush]

This is amazing and in hindsight should have been expected. Every drop of projection the right has been throwing at Dems over refusing to accept the election will now become their reality.

[WAR]

Oregon had 2 votes, one decriminalized ~all drugs, the other:

@Ballotpedia

Measure 109 created a program for administering psilocybin products, such as psilocybin-producing mushrooms and fungi, to individuals aged 21 years or older. As of 2020, the manufacturing and consumption of psilocybin is illegal under both federal law and state law.[1][2]

The Oregon Health Authority (OHA) will be responsible for establishing the program and creating regulations. OHA has a two-year period to develop the program. An Oregon Psilocybin Advisory Board (OPAB) advise the OHA. Clients would be allowed to purchase, possess, and consume psilocybin at a psilocybin service center and under the supervision of a psilocybin service facilitator after undergoing a preparation session. Under Measure 109, the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) determines who is eligible to be licensed as a facilitator, determine what qualifications, education, training, and exams are needed, and create a code of professional conduct for facilitators. OHA would set psilocybin dosage standards and labeling and packaging rules.[1]

So that doesn’t sound like the weed store will be selling shrooms, but it’s more than decriminalization.

[pvn]

@skydiver8

also, random thought: I wonder if there’s a way for future polling to take into account that a certain percentage of the sample just…isn’t telling the truth? Pretty sure current polls and models operate on the assumption that respondents are being honest. Obviously that assumption is wrong. Is it fixable?

Sure, some people lie, but there’s no reason to think more people lie in one direction that the other