Drug epidemic - national emergency.
School shootings - national emergency.
âTurnout favours Democratsâ is thoroughly conventional wisdom, though. Even the Republicans think so; itâs the basis of most of their voter suppression antics. I donât know to what extent itâs turned out to be bullshit (evidently to some extent) or how much of it just Covid fucking with things. I mean, voters deciding on the basis of âthe economyâ are usually not thinking about âdo we do more lockdownsâ etc. Itâs a distorting factor for sure imo.
half-assed would be a gigantic step up for me
The party of philosophical grievance champions will gladly jump the Trump ship now that itâs gone beyond abstract ambition and forces them to grapple with the real-world consequences.
Shapiro/Tucker 2020
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So Biden convinced exactly zero voters. GJGE. Iâm glad he was the nominee.
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It would help to spell out what the actual problem is repeatedly. For some reason Dems seem to think that voters know this stuff. Look at the way Trump does messaging. Get up there every single day and say âwe canât pass X because the Republicans are blocking us in the Senateâ. Hammer on that over and over again, every day.
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the hand wringing about latinos and black men reminded me of this piece from David Shor which seemed to predict the shift almost exactly right
Weâve been talking a lot about the education split among white voters. But the polling results you just referenced from South Africa suggest that education-based splits on cosmopolitanism manifest across racial and ethnic lines. Are Democrats losing ground with nonwhite, non-college-educated voters?
Yeah. Black voters trended Republican in 2016. Hispanic voters also trended right in battleground states. In 2018, I think itâs absolutely clear that, relative to the rest of the country, nonwhite voters trended Republican. In Florida, Democratic senator Bill Nelson did 2 or 3 points better than Clinton among white voters but lost because he did considerably worse than her among Black and Hispanic voters. Weâre seeing this in 2020 polling, too. I think thereâs a lot of denial about this fact.
I donât think there are obvious answers as to why this is happening. But non-college-educated white voters and non-college-educated nonwhite voters have a lot in common with each other culturally. So as the salience of cultural issues with strong education-based splits increases â whether itâs gender politics or authoritarianism or immigration â it would make sense that weâd see some convergence between non-college-educated voters across racial lines.
American politics used to be very idiosyncratic, because we have this historical legacy of slavery and Jim Crow and all of these things that donât have clear foreign analogues. But the world is slowly changing â not changing in ways that make racism go away or not matter â but in ways that erode some of the underpinnings of race-based voting. So if you look at Black voters trending against us, itâs not uniform. Itâs specifically young, secular Black voters who are voting more Republican than their demographic used to. And the ostensible reason for this is the weakening of the Black church, which had, for historical reasons, occupied a really central place in Black society and helped anchor African-Americans in the Democratic Party. Among Black voters, one of the biggest predictors for voting Republican is not attending church. So I think you can tell this story about how the America-centric aspects of our politics are starting to decay, and weâre converging on the dynamics that you see in Europe, where nonwhite voters are more left wing than white voters, but where they vote for the left by like 65 to 35 percent, rather than the 90-10 split you see with African-Americans.
To be clear, if that happens, it would take a long time. But if I had to guess, Iâd say young African-Americans might trend 4 or 5 percent against us in relative terms. But theyâre a small percent of the Black electorate. These are slow-moving trends.
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While a lot of this could be true. Do you really think president Pence siphons of any of the male black vote? Trump could be unique until the next populist dictator-wannabe comes a long.
In very general terms the answer is policies slightly right of Bernie and Liz, and rhetoric slightly right of Pete Buttigieg with a little tough talk and chest thumping thrown into the stump speeches.
A quick tot up and I think Biden needs less than 60% of the uncounted votes to win GA and 63% to win PA.
This is the weirdest election of all time. People are going to draw a lot of conclusions that will not be correct long term. Trump is a unicorn. There will never be another candidate like him. There likely wonât be another pandemic for a long time.
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âThe Republicans in the Senate are a disasterâ x1000 times a day, not âcanât pass x because of yâ, as that invokes a causal relationship too sophisticated for 50% of the electorate
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https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1324097044013862914?s=19
https://twitter.com/OsitaNwanevu/status/1324125808718450689?s=19
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might see some Trump copycats. Consevatives everywhere going to try his playbook.
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A co-worker of my wife is from Pittsburgh and her sister there is saying local stations there are saying PA is Biden. I have 3rd hand info here and I donât know at all what this means are they just doing what we are and mathing it out or is even better than that @anon38180840?
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A lot of it will look like Danny Devito trying to emulate the career of Dwayne Johnson. Let them try.
