I don’t see Trump and the MAGA morons going quietly with it being this close. I have no idea what happens but it won’t be nothing.
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Florida has this. You enter your name and DOB and solve a captcha and it tells you if your ballot was mailed to you, if they got it back, if it was received, and if it was counted. And If not, it tells you what to do to cure it.
Senate will depend on GA runoffs
If there’s any upside to Trump’s behavior at this point, it heaps more and more shame on anyone that supported him.
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He’s going to get like 5 million more votes than last election. There. Is. No. Shame.
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Hell, he didn’t even have to actually do any of it. Just campaign on it.
Because I used my quarantine time to learn cricket, I actually understood all of that. Before March I would have told you to GTFO with this.
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any updates on georgia? do they need some paper towels?
Maybe even the worst of the worst are ready to abandon ship and throw in the towel:
They were supposed to start counting again 20 minutes ago. No updated data yet though.
It’s been happening since 1990. That’s exactly when the polls started to be “off” in a way that always favors Republicans. If you want a deeper dive read about Warren Mitofsky, the father of exit polling, who was repeatedly baffled by it throughout the 90s and the W Bush elections and is the person who coined the shy [GOP] voter theory. It wasn’t so much a thoughtful theory as it was “this is the only explanation I can come up with that possibly explains this” thing, but then people tested it and it doesn’t really check out at the precinct level. Also another pollster named John Brennan (not that John Brennan).
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That like saying if you just keep feeding the Dread Pirate Robert’s Locaine powder he will eventually succumb.
jonah 4 president
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We didn’t just lose Florida, though. We lost Florida BY THREE, which is both a larger margin than in 2016, and also this happened when 538 was predicting a more Democratic vote in Florida than 2016. That’s a massive swing counter to expectations, one that literally looks outside of Nate’s pretty generous error bars. This was compounded by the fact that there was an easy and obvious explanation for this: Latinx voters in Miami-Dade. People blamed Cubans and assumed they’d be independent of other Latinx voters, but that pretty clearly wasn’t borne out when the TX vote came in.
Florida going for Trump last night by <1% is a minor setback, particularly if it doesn’t look like a systematic polling error that whiffed on Latinx people bigly. As it played out, Florida was clear evidence that polling was way, way off, and if that 5.6 percentage point miss relative to 538’s model held out across the board, we were very likely looking at President Trump. Thankfully, the errors in the upper Midwest don’t look quite that large.
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This is your go-to for GA updates.
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary
Yeah but we did well in the suburbs in FL and in Okaloosa relative to not just 2016 but 2008. That was a good sign for the blue wall states. Also, we won AZ so the Hispanic thing didn’t kill us there, thus the correlation may not have been super strong.
Like my guess without having dived in yet is that we ran at ~2012 margins with non-FL Hispanics and way behind it in FL due to the socialism scare.
I like that Jorgensen is listed as “Jo Jorgensen (Lib)” like the site is trying to insult her.
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Where is finding an additional 200k votes in Miami-Dade located on the potripper graph?
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In the end if the polls end up being off, it may be almost fully explainable by the USPS straight up not delivering ballots.
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