FAT TAILS
Nate is going to be going on and on about how this is why he has fat tails on his models, small sample of past elections, etc, etc…
They totally lack charisma but I think you’re right that that’s of secondary importance to voting out the black woman.
Sounds about right to me.
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One thing is for sure. You could assemble a star team of the worlds greatest political scientists and task them with creating the single worst democratic election system they can devise and they wouldn’t be able to come up with anything worse than the current US system. It’s the absolute nut low system ever devised.
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I’m too tired to dig deeper, but I’m currently not convinced that the pandemic helped Dems, crazy as it seems.
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I’m reading lots of contradictory stuff about Georgia rn. Less confident than I was last night, but I think that it’s inaccurate there are only 127,000 absentee ballots in the state. I think that’s just Fulton and Dekalb.
Who’s “they”? They media benefits from stretching out the drama as long as possible.
im a tumbler, im a government man. dont you miss it. some of you people just about missed it. don’t even mention it. I’m a government man.
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Meh, I’m not too hard on Nate. He doesnt have the raw polling data to adjust for the “unknowns”. Clearly there were some big misses. California has a ways to go, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets up to 4% which I think is again about a 3 point miss for Nate nationally.
Maybe he should just publish polls -3.
Yeah we cannot run Kamala Harris against Donald Trump in 2024. Absolutely cannot do it.
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Idk why he and the Nates don’t just claim riggage. It’s their only face-saving move at this point. And it works for Trump like a charm!
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A Biden appointed AG could get to the bottom if there are any shenanigans.
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seems kinda insane that GA isn’t resuming counting until 11AM, wtf
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i am not a burning building. im a tumbler. I’m a government man. I’m catching up with myself.
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“Here’s some stuff” is a message that works on selfish people.
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I’m feeling good about GA, and I think on the Senate side we may be looking at 50-48 with two GA runoffs (aka still drawing live to Dem trifecta).
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This is very silly. It is obviously shit and unfit for the modern world, but you have no idea about the competition.
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Y’all ain’t familiar with the Southerner pace of doing things?
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12th amendment only. Possibly 13th. The rest are DOA.
wait what? Where are we picking up 4 seats?