Harris should not be our nominee in 2024 regardless of what happens this year. She’s gonna lose no matter who they run. She couldn’t even cash IN OUR PRIMARY ffs and she sure as hell didn’t bring any votes to this ticket that weren’t already coming as far as I can tell.
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If Trump does a concession speech, it’ll be: it’s ok, 4 years of rallies and I’ll win the biggest landslide ever in 2024. You’ll all beg to have me back.
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Yes. This is why I am WAAF this morning, even if Biden pulls this off. I was always “turnout=good”. Now I have no idea where we go from here.
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I’ll admit I’m pretty solidly on full panic mode right now but if it’s so obvious all the remaining vote is going to be Biden why don’t they call some of the states or even the election?
That’s a widening. It was basically tied an hour or two ago.
Woke up. Cliffs on past 4 hrs?
Biden is a near lock to win but WAAF anyway I guess?
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Long-term WAAF, short-term slightly less WAAF
Edit: ponied - great minds think alike
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I’m feeling pretty WAAF about 2024. Unless stocks do absolutely great, Biden loses too. It’s not like there’s going to be a bunch of great legislation. Hopefully Trump doesn’t live that long and we just have to beat Junior or Ted Cruz.
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Yeah turnout this high and it still being close strongly suggests to me that we need a whole new strategy as a party. It’s very obvious now that we need to go figure out how to message to low education whites.
This is going to be a long road. We should start by using the power of the executive branch on their propaganda organs. Nothing will work vs fox and Facebook. Remove them and go populist socialism with no mention of lol social issues unless the SC fucks up and overturns roe. Honestly though I don’t think that would help us as much as I thought it would before last night.
Those fb link traffic posts are a huge part of what just happened. We should nuke fb from orbit without remorse.
Lol eDems now and forever honestly.
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I had -64k when I woke up, now -26k. NYT. 83% to 86% of vote. So in 3% of the bote he made up 28k.
If that holds due to mail-in, then he will gain another ~140k for a win of >100k and hopefully drag the senate seat along.
Joe has strengths and weaknesses. He is legitimately good with blue collar union guys. The problem is that choosing Joe is putting all the chips in on the bet that he will deliver enough of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio to win. Its not a bad bet in the abstract, but if it turns out that actually the whole game depended on Miami-Dade then with hindsight he was a bad choice.
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But chr might beat dbl dbl
So everything is fine, right? AZ/WI/NV all seem solid now, MI/PA well within where they would need to be with the remaining votes, and still a decent shot at getting GA.
Am I missing anything?
The real Biden WAAF case is this:
-the economy is in ruins.
-Covid is only going to get worse.
-There is no chance MAGA morons take a Biden vaccine.
-Mitch McConnell
Is that still better than Trump? Yes. But we just delayed the inevitable slightly.
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We wanna try to get one of GA and PA (in addition to NV+WI+MI+AZ), just so that we aren’t drawing to a single faithless elector sending it to 269-269
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Timing an exit is notoriously difficult. It’s order of magnitude easier and less stressful as well as
probably higher EV to find an inaccurate market and bet and leave.
Trading usually means placing a -EV bet to lock in profit from a +EV bet.
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you are dead on from what I see. I think Michigan is a foregone conclusion and PA is >50%. I’m about 40% on Georgia even though NYT is >60%.
The part where we don’t have the senate and are totally fucked going forward.
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