https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323961092842917889?s=21
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Nah, you just have to be old enough when you take office. But she really canāt win.
Indeed.
Looking at the current Dems Iāve seen, my laymanās view says this is your one shot.
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Iām running around with my dick out. gimme a mc breakfast. fuck you all. smooches.
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Yeah Kenosha County was basically even in 2016, and right now Biden is down 20 points. Iād expect the count there to further pad Bidenās lead in WI.
Shit faced simp is best simp.
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Except Iām not trying to soft peddle racism, it is certainly a huge part of the motivation, but I guess I think capitalism inherently fosters this and you literally have one party offering a racial victimhood narrative to whites and another party offering nothing at all
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Itās too soon to draw conclusions on how badly it missed. Weāre going to keep adding to our margins from here on out, so the polling averages may have been only a point or two outside the MOE. Not crazy bad in a high turnout election IF thatās how it ends up.
I have a feeling when we look at the map in two weeks, thereās still a decent chance (25% say) that had everyone seen that at 10pm on 11/3 weād have been dancing and elbow bumping and shit.
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Trump didnt have the courts against him. Biden will
I think one thing both conservatives and liberals can agree on is to never look at a fucking poll ever again.
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Heās a big dog, but heās not dead.
Is the MOV in these states gonna be enough to fade court and recount shenanigans?
Thereās definitely a messaging problemā¦ Florida going hard for $15 min wage but against progressives means Trump won the messaging war.
Probably should have hammered concrete plans to improve peopleās lives.
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Trafalgar will end up missing by a similar amount as the polling average of everyone else missed.
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I hate the assymetry, it reminds me 2000, just like Biden gave me flashbacks to Kerry 2004.
Dems are āevery vote must be countedā and Repubs are āfuck you, we won, stop the count!ā.
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Also, the fact that progressive policies have majority support across the country shows that the Dems absolutely suck at messaging, which is no surprise to anybody in this forum.
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If this holds we win by 1.8% in PA. Recall what I said, and will keep repeating: +5 in polling was a toss, +6 was lean Biden, +7 was a comfortable win for Biden. I still expect to hear that lots of ballots were tossed for being naked, some didnāt arrive on time, etc.
Polling average ended up around 6%, weāre likely going to win by ~1.8? I said weād lose 2-4 points net on naked ballotsā¦ Just sayin, the polling might have actually been pretty good.
Curious to see what happens with ballots getting tossed in other states, too. Could be that the polling miss was heavily influenced by that.
Iām sure the Nates will be along in due course with some post fact rationalisation of why in fact they were much more right than everyone else.
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A closer look at Michigan. I picked counties that have 4% or more outstanding vote (and more than 10k votes).
Bottom line is that I accounted for 3/4 of the outstanding votes and if they break the same as they are now, then Biden picks up about 125k giving him a 60k margin with only 210k votes left. So he only needs 29% of the unaccounted for to hold him off.
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