the pundits all had 90% or better on at least twitter, nate cohn, nate silver, wasserman, etc etc etc whoever else, leantossup who claimed they got everything else right previously, most gamblers I knew did too (jkersting was just some college kid trying it for the first time and ended up with the same system as those guys)
too much groupthink/blind trust
When I looked back at polling error misses vs results, I noticed the more enthusiastic candidate beat it generally by a few to some points. My assumption of part of the error here is they decided to skew the polls to an assumed electorate % weight by types which did not happen.
That error would explain the group herding but kudos to seltzer for blasting that shit and just doing her own thing and being pretty good at her job. (sheās not perfect either but thatās two straight potus elections that everyone was stupid in iowa compared to her)
WE KNOW ITāS STUPID. Google how to pass an amendment to the United States Constitution, then look at the electoral map, then look at the margins in some of the red states we would need to get onboard.
Its hard to reconcile Americansā hatred for each other with any meaningful definition of patriotism. Americaās culture of inequality is more of the root cause. Theyāve twisted themselves into thinking inequality is good. Billionaires = capitalism is a success! Cops murdering black people = law and order!
Thereās the abstract idea of AMERICA that theyāre force fed from birth, which a few of them later on realise was horseshit, by which time itās emotionally ingrained unfortunately.
The problem is the radical stupids make up way to big a portion of the population to agree to the change. 40% of the country is completely stupid and brainwashed, and another 20 just donāt care or donāt know what all is going on. I donāt know how anything ever gets changed without a civil war.
This is an awful, awful take. No one is fundamentally amending the Constitution without a foreign invasion or a descent into dictatorship in the interim.
National popular vote for president is unlikely but possible. State-level PR is possible but not popular. Better election laws are critical and doable. But thatās it. No amount of wishing will change the Senate.
