Nate Silver is gonna be grinding 4-8 LO8 by the next midterm.
Counterpoint:: Weāre still very live in Georgia.
he always does that
well it could be good or bad who really knows thanks for reading my tweet and Iām totally worth the sums of money I get paid and thereās no way anyone could do it better, certainly not some random on unstuck who actually did do well overall on his map. nope, not at all
That means we have to start unstuck polling and unstuck publishing. Put a dent in Nate and put a dent in Mason.
Maybe the COVID spikes depressed the democratic day of turnout but not the republican day of turnout.
except I effectively stated harrison had no chance and also was driving the big blue georgia bus on this board? A little part of it was getting too much hype, once it made it a national race then R turnout sprung to life.
Do these finish line toss ups even matter? With Trump all he needs is a narrative to shamelessly drive this to the illegitimate Supreme Court to appoint him winner. And Biden missed the decisive sweep necessary to block that narrative.
maybe some big national news happened there. dunno either offhand. MN was the most left of that group though coming in.
WI is more rural of the MN/WI/MI/PA quad. It shouldāve been right of those three, though I guess it kinda ends up close to MI/PA.
Heāll move into some new field thatās just starting up, be the best for the first 1-3 years, then be mediocre for a few years, then be found out to be way behind the curve. Heās an early adapter, but canāt stay at the top of anything. Harsh, but true.
When are we supposed to get more Michigan votes?
Also, Green Bay soon?
Lol, I guess we still have to fade Arizona:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323943597927006210
Peters may well win the Senate race in Michigan, but the Rās absolutely stroked us in the so called competitive races.
fwiw i think 538 is an amazing website from a user engagement standpoint. too bad the data sucks balls.
Like five minutes ago I was thinking we should start a competitor to 538, but also do Dem messaging content/consulting/whatever.
Call it unsuck polling
Wonāt be surprised if when I wake up in 3 more hours nobody knows shit and thereās still 10s of millions of ballots still left to count.
Could also be the same stupid shit as 2016 where people thought we had it in the bag and stayed home? But turnout is going to end up being really high still, so I dunno if thatās it.
So what are the chances we get to 50 seats?