The 2020 Election: Delaying the Inevitable

[Rexx]

ty ty

[King_of_NY]

@Riverman

Joe is now a significant favorite to win

someone please make him stop

[bigt2k4]

That could be huge for Biden if his lead holds in Idaho

[Melkerson]

So if we have the 2016 map, but biden flips AZ and PA only. That’s still a Trump win, right?

I’d check, but I’m sure some of you wizards know off the top of your head.

[PlzBeALevel]

Pinny didn’t move at all.

[tabbaker]

I’ll feel a lot more confident when we see some of those Midwest absentee votes coming in

[anon38180840]

@Danspartan

Cuse is locked in a box with rubber walls. Someone else is running his account.

WHEN THE CUSE IS IN THE HOUSE OH MA GOD GOD WHEN THE CUSE IS IN THE HOUSE OH MY GOD, DANGER!

Old school Big East peeps will get that reference and it should prove my authenticity and happiness.

[champ]

I think Biden got to like +500? Someone smart I’m sure put a crap ton down and is now hedged and locked in a ton of profit.

[Trolly]

Fuck, maybe we just barely squeak by. This nation is a goddamn embarrassment.

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

@catfacemeowmers

I guess the point is that in all of the counties in PA and the midwest that are reporting 80+% of their results, Trump is running better or even with 2016. We need to bet on Biden overperforming in a major way vs Clinton in Philly/Milwaukee/Detroit/Pittsburgh/etc.

Yes but most of those counties in PA are not including the early vote! We knew going into today that many of those red counties weren’t even going to start counting that till tomorrow. Biden was projected to run like 50 points better early vote versus day of vote.

[joltinjake]

Isn’t Arizona like 30% Hispanic? Fox calling it for Biden so early seems absolutely bonkers to me given Biden’s underperformance among Hispanics elsewhere.

(Not saying they’re wrong, just wow)

[AllTheCheese]

I’ll reiterate that mail-in ballots are almost 3:1 Dem in PA. If most of the outstanding are mail ins and Biden is behind by 2.5 points right now, he is absolutely going to win.

[Riverman]

https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1323846105197666306?s=21

[Marksman]

Now is not the time Sassy Susan!?!???

[champ]

White people who love John McCain potentially delivered Biden the election. Probably shouldn’t have gone so hard in the paint against AZ’s favorite son there, Donny.

[Melkerson]

Also, can one of your bros explain the counting in in MI/WI/PA.

I know PA doesn’t start counting mail until today.

What about MI/WI? Same there? No mail-in counting until today?

[oscark]

What are current odds for Michigan and Wisconsin?

[Riverman]

Noted. Self imposed optimism ban starts now

[ChrisV]

@Riverman

Either I’m an idiot who can’t do math or Joe is now a significant favorite to win.

I have no sense of what his winning chances are in NE-2 and ME-2, just no idea. I was heartened by Nate saying only 6% of simulations with blue AZ and red OH/FL/GA were ties because that seems to imply that Biden winning one or the other is a solid chance.

[catfacemeowmers]

@j8i3h289dn3x7

Yes but most of those counties in PA are not including the early vote!

How many times are you going to say this, and then I tell you that they are including the early vote?

I am looking at a bunch of counties reporting 80% or more. Those counties reflect turnout that is consistent with 80% or more of the total expected votes. Trump is overperforming compared to 2016 in every single one of those counties, including the county where Joe fucking Biden grew up.