I’m out. Going to try to sleep through the night. I can’t stomach a Trump speech. I can’t stomach any of this. Hoping we run perfect the rest of the way.
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was 1.2 about 45 minutes ago.
it’s red for me, bruv
red here
Same
Red mirage yes.
Relax. Uh, no.
Right but an increased margin is what we expect in a county that went for Trump. Like if Trump won a county by 10% and the turnout increase was neutral in terms of percentages, we’d expect all the extra turnout to break for Trump by 10 points. The fact that it’s breaking less than that for him - substantially less - suggests that the extra turnout is more Dem-shifted than existing voters. You can’t make up the margin like that in pro-Trump counties, but you can in pro-Dem counties. Like if the new voters in these counties went Trump +2 instead of Trump +10, presumably they’ll go Biden +18 in a county that was previously Biden +10.
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I don’t get how you know Biden loses Wisconsin/Michigan?
Biden hasn’t massively underperformed the polls.
He is just losing all the states they said he was a 2% favorite in. So if it is a 5% flip… he still wins those states (MI/WI/PA/MN) ?
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It’ sthe fucking website, it had biden up to 1.9 million votes and then ropped him to 1.2 million i have no idea what is happening. same happenned to Wisconsin. Both back to red.
It’s back to red.
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no, fuck you
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I still think Biden is going to win
Bring it sweet summer child pony
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fuck that, he’s the favorite right now.
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With or without NV?
Decision Desk do this all the time. What happens is they fill in the votes for just one candidate in a county and that goes live, then they fill in the other candidate and it snaps back to what it was.
Looks like the decision to collaborate with Russia on election security is really paying off
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I’m nervous but I’m still feeling like 65/35 or a little better for Biden, which is basically what I felt like a few days ago.
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Is there any site with a map of over/undersampling mail-ins?
Was wondering where you went. If I’m gonna get attacked by this crowd I want some company
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