The 2020 Election: Delaying the Inevitable

[Joog]

@Chuckleslovakian

Jesus fucking christ. I could have understood Trump winning before Covid. But absolute fucking madness him winning given his covid response.

It is what it is.

[eyebooger]

@mjiggy

I’m on my phone so what’s the path if Biden loses PA?

Probably starts with not also losing MI and WI.

[tabbaker]

I’m sure Trump supporters will be cool with a bunch of ballots coming in over the next couple days flipping the entire election for Biden. Nothing bad will happen.

[ChrisV]

@mjiggy

I’m on my phone so what’s the path if Biden loses PA? Are NV and AZ like ME2 enough?

Yeah it has to be NV, AZ, and either ME-2 or NE-2. Also holding MN/MI/WI obviously.

@catfacemeowmers

… any margin increase is losing, right? Am I crazy?

Your numbers show a decrease in Trump’s winning percentage in counties he won in 2016. If the increase in turnout is largely breaking for Biden, the small increase in absolute Trump margin in those counties, in terms of votes, will be offset by a larger increase in Dem margin in Dem counties.

[hokie]

@catfacemeowmers

… any margin increase is losing, right? Am I crazy?

Like, of the increased turnout, more of those people voted for Trump than for Biden, otherwise the margin would decrease?

I guess the hail Mary there is that margin increases here less than turnout while margin towards Biden increases more than turnout in Biden locales. Tough though

[Sean]

Yeah, it seems like we are still in coin flip territory here.

Nate got Florida wrong by 5% and he had Pennsylvia > 5%

WichitaDM seems to be jumping the gun.

[Hired_Goons]

Uh, no? How ‘bout WA, OR, CA, NV? Sorry CO, we’ll always love you.

[WichitaDM]

The best case is we head to the Supreme Court to decide PA which will be close.

THE EXACT RESULT MANY OF US HAVE BEEN PREDICTING FOR MONTHS WHILE THE VINCE MEMES GOT POPULAR.

[von_Internet]

[IrishRunner]

https://twitter.com/lukewsavage/status/1323831973253697536?s=21

[wirelessgrinder]

what are we expecting of Iowa?

[WichitaDM]

LoL. No. All of Biden’s paths lead through ACB. Those are all Trump win paths.

[catfacemeowmers]

@ChrisV

increase in turnout is largely breaking for Biden

If the increase in turnout was largely breaking for Biden, then the margin would decrease. It seems like the increase in turnout was largely breakeven, slightly preferring Trump. The fact that the new voters like Trump less than the existing voters do doesn’t change the fact that they vote more for Trump.

Adding 20k votes that go 55-45 Trump in a 65-35 Trump county doesn’t help Biden.

[Danspartan]

Actually expect Trump to declare himself the winner at midnight. Time to stop counting. Time’s up.

[Krayz]

Red unless Biden sweeps the midwest w/ a close Ohio

[wheatrich]

Iowa could be live here

[LikeClockwork]

@wirelessgrinder

what are we expecting of Iowa?

cow manure, ethanol, and racism, in no particular order

[darksideofthewall]

[Tych]

I mean yea, but every state has followed the same pattern. The pattern says no.

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

PA just flipped blue by DDHQ. Huge shift. Something just must have dumped, Biden up by 300k votes in PA now.

DDHQ Election Results

Edit: Jesus wtf is happennning, Decision desk just undid it.