This is wrong. He’s still good at election modeling, it’s just like what can you do when all your data is bad.
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Do we know that these reporting numbers are right and account for mail-in?
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It is. The vote totals match up w/ 2016, increased turnout this year in both counties.
This is a repeat of 2016 down to the state. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised we just replaced one shitty centrist with another.
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So PA won’t be decided tonight. Is there any chance we get a Biden call tonight?
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GUYS. JESUS CHRIST. RED MIRAGE IN THE MIDWEST. HAS NOBODY BEEN PAYING ATTENTION FOR THE PAST TWO FUCKING MONTHS??? EVERYONE RELAX ON THE MIDWEST.
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Fucking 2016 should have been Biden v Hill with the loser backing the fuck out in 2020.
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Many people are saying that disgraced poll-averager Nate Silver will lose his election bets and be forced to shave his head. Will be an improvement. Sad!
16 and 20 I was a lot closer than he was and I still get wrecked because I was also wrong is massively rustling me.
Worse if hill won in 16, there’s roughly a 0.0% chance I bet against trump now.
Wonder how close my expected map from months ago would’ve been to this result. Probably pretty close sadly.
Both counties are up around 10-20% turnout from 2016 in the reported numbers. I assume it’s correct and includes mail in.
Damn, so much for that theory
Depends on MI, WI, MN, AZ, and I guess NV.
No chance at all. The absentees need to be counted.
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Then your numbers show a move toward Biden. 10% turnout increase, but only 4% margin increase.
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ANY OF YOU MOTHERFUCKERS WANNA POST ANOTHER NATIONAL +11% POLL?
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Obviously you haven’t been. Yes the late counting goes for Biden but that isn’t flipping enough of these totals so far.
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vincememe.jpg
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I’m on my phone so what’s the path if Biden loses PA? Are NV and AZ like ME2 enough?
This is a very good point.