I’m going for the Fibonacci sequence.
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That’s an expensive one 
Really tough to tease this effect out because of that last part you mentioned–separating noise from numerology. For example, I’d bet 1337 goes for more than 1336 and 1338, but to people who don’t know why it would just look like noise. Look at my plot again though: it’s fairly flat in the 4-digit range, and I suspect you could probably model the 4-digit serials separately as y = α + ε with no covariate. If there’s a slope there on 4-digit serials it must be tiny.
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Some numbers are considered lucky in different countries like 168, 888, I’m sure there’s tons more…
69
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And some numbers are disliked in cultures 4 comes to mind , living Vancouver area the newer high rises skip all the floors containing the #4 because of our large Asian community.
Is there some API I can tap into somewhere to grab a ton of marketplace transactions? I think the pricing would be pretty easy to solve but I need the data.
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I listed PJ #1xxx at the model price of $132 and it sold almost instantly. Listed Doncic common (3xxx) for $36 and gone just as quickly as I was looking to sell. Durant common (2xxx) up now. All above lowest ask by at least $4-$5.
There must be a way as there are sites that are aggregating the data in real time:
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$50 will barton seriously?
prices very high today
Cool Cats challenge card
I’ve been on this site a month, $50 for that card even with that challenge is completely absurd
kinda striking how just last night prices for many cards got way too low and now they’re a bit too high compared to normal
stanley is $30 lol, even if this is the future most people who’d get into this already are I reckon at this point, but who knows, espn article today probably boosts things too
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Right but you have to realize there are a ton of new idiots on here after a 50k pack drop doing all kinds of dumb shit like dumping Cool Cats for $20.
Yeah I noticed that too. It looks like HFT watching it in real time as the lowest ask serial box strobes the “Sorry, this one just sold.”
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fwiw, the last cool cats set had half of this amount and didn’t go for 300 outside a small window and that was for a better card.
I’m not good enough to time selling anything during an obvious mania phase. It’s a time/value calculation for you at this point whether you want to try to squeeze maximizing every dollar or hope for a price explosion.
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I clicked this and saw higher serial number than beetlejuice same player cool cats for $400 and a bunch of $15 TJ Mcconnells.
people have way too much money
My thoughts were that the number of people trying to complete the challenge is substantially smaller than 10k, and once they are filled up the market will cool off.
I ran a second model on just the 4-digit PJ CC. The coefficient on serial number is negative (expected) and significant (p < 0.014), but the effect is tiny: the predicted price difference between the lowest and highest serials is about $8 with average price of $115. Scaling that up for the higher baseline value of the Herro card, I think a model would spit out something like $200 to $210 for yours with an upper around $225 (I’m adjusting to the most recent low ask of $195).
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I was surprised at how quickly and easily I was able to unload 3 cards. I also wanted to get them up while all this action is popping because I suspect a lot of it is new people from 50k packs. That hype might be dead in a few days.
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Going on nearly 24 hours without a pack, I’m having withdrawals
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Roll this into DFS where you’re opening a new pack with every entry and you’ve got yourself a trillion-dollar business.
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