The data are not looking good at all. It’s almost perfectly exponential at this point. Looking at maybe 3,000 dead in the US in the next ten days just eyeballing these graphs.
I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure the swab-up-the-nose test only tells you if you’re infected right now and doesn’t say anything about whether you’ve had it in the past and have antibodies for it.
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I believe there is a test for the antibodies. Of course, likely not available in the US.
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My understanding, there’s a separate blood test to see if you have antibodies in your blood, meaning you’ve already had the virus.
But we can’t even get the normal test ramped up to capacity, so don’t count on the other anytime soon.
And no one really knows about immunity. Somethings immunity lasts a lifetime, some not long at all. And some viruses like the flu constantly mutate, and you are always fighting a new strain. We still know very little about this thing.
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Sure, but those are going to be very expensive compared to the swab tests.
It’s also very expensive remaining quarantined forever while the world economy dies.
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I heard Dr. Fauci say that if you test positive you are isolated. Then after that you need two negative tests to be released. He made it sound as if it were the same test. But I don’t know. I’ve heard Sangay Gupta or someone with some expertise say that once you’ve had the virus the presumption is that you will not be reinfected, inasmuch as that is the behavior of most coronaviruses.
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Every group that has disproportionate access to tests seems to be, shocker, testing positive at an alarming rate.
I fully expect The Villages type places to experience widespread literal carnage. Every indication is that the bodies are going to start piling up, with hospitals full and letting olds die, within a week.
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Seeing as we can’t even roll out the swab tests in USA#1, I think there’s almost no chance we get antibody tests unless maybe you’re an NBA player or something. idk if we could even mass-produce them in time to do much good.
Sucks every day we see that where we are headed is demonstrated obviously and most people don’t understand.
I still hear from people talking about how not many have died or gotten sick. I try to warn them where it is headed but most simply don’t understand or don’t care.
These daily reminders of the exponential nature of the menace is probably the thing that throws me the most. It is impossible to see a good result through it.
I think New York is going to be the first place to tip over even though they might have started behind some other locations.
Jesus
https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1240391548925292545
THEN WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT
Oh they’re using them to prioritize hospitals for Corona patients. Okay that’s not so bad :P
I’m okay with having a place to treat non corona patients theoretically but I have no clue who is supposed to work there. So it does seem kind of pointless.
…which is why I am not putting down this pitch fork after all!
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This is so fucked. They’ve had over a month. How has nothing been done about this?
That’s some nice looking R^2. Source data or file?
Is that all they need is a surgical mask? I thought they needed N95? I’ll send them my 2 boxes of surgical masks if it will help.
I don’t give a shit what the experts think, until I see a hot weather country get overrun I still think cold + densely populated is the real sweet spot for this virus. Villages might be spared by warmth a little.