The other thing that you have to consider is that the people on the vents are not getting optimal ventillator management. There are reports from Italy and NYC of recently graduated residents, docs who haven’t dealt with vents for years (e.g. pathologists), or even nurses trying to manage a COVID patient on a ventillator.
That has to affect the fatality rate. Even if you have the ventillator, not having an expert knowing what to do with it has got to decrease your chance of coming off of it successfully.
Even the experts probably have more vent patients than they can manage optimally. It would be like taking a super-skilled NLHE pro and making him multitable a ridiculous number of games. The results per hand will suffer.
IIRC this isn’t just any church, this is the one with the famous Jesus statue that got struck by lightning. It’s one of the Midwest’s greatest displays of man’s hubris.
What are those breakdowns by age and comorbidity factors though? I feel like younger, healthier people without ventilators are at greater risk but I don’t have numbers to back that up.
Sure, but 90% of the time it’s Florida, it’s actually an Ohio transplant. Every white Ohio old who makes it to social security immediately moves to Florida, inevitably followed by their drug addict kids and their spawn.
Well reading the tea leaves from Italy, younger people that need to be vents do better than older. But it doesn’t seem like overall your chances are very good no matter your age if you get to that point.
I worry that the high standard to go to the hospital (already in really bad shape) ramps up the death rate.
People are getting put on vents maybe later than they should be for the best outcomes? Clearly lots of folks are taking a bad turn at home and never getting to the hospital.
We should think about the vent impact on the death count in more human terms
Assume 10,000 deaths in NYC with no vents.
Assume 50% of these could be vent cases in hospitals. That’s 5,000. (Just a guess some fraction die at home or in nursing homes or are never going to make it). This is pessimistic?
Let’s assume instead we got those 5,000 people on vents but only 30% survive (again pessimistic). That’s 1,500 lives saved and only 8,500 die instead of 10,000.
Let’s say the US has the equivalent of 20 NYC events. That’s 30,000 lives. 170k instead of 200k.
From a death rate standpoint not much more than a rounding error. From a human standpoint it’s huge.
(Not a criticism of the earlier posts, I tend to look at the math, too. It just struck me that Many of those people have a lot of life left to live if they can make it). I’m 55. I’d take 30% chance over 0% every time. Sucks to die just cause they didn’t have the one tool that gives me a shot when I live in the “richest” effin country in the world.
Police are doing checks in my neighbourhood and decided to stop at my neighbours to check that no parties are going on because he happened to be playing a little music at 2am…its Friday ffs.
No one, I repeat no-one here calls the Cops for anything.
Once upon a time, I would have been able to tell you down to the timestamped minute about every single detail in every episode. I got a ticket to the finale as “press” because I helped admin a survivor “spoiler analysis” forum. It was a simpler time, at the dawn of the internet…but forum drama looked exactly the same!
