The Art of the Deal
In a previous post, I presented a “dots in a box” model of the spread of a virus. In this post, I use it to compare the economic and social cost of two policies that are equally effective at containing the virus.
What the simulations show is that if we use a test to determine who gets put into isolation the fraction of the population that needs to be confined and isolated is dramatically smaller. These benefits are available even with an imperfect test and without doing any contact tracing. It does take frequent testing, with each person getting retested roughly every two weeks.
This comparison shows that isolation based on test results requires much less disruption to normal patterns of social interaction. An economy can survive with 10% of the population insolation. It can’t survive when 50% of the population is in isolation.
It is not hard to see why targeting the isolation based on test results reduces the total number of people in isolation. What matters for controlling the infection is how many infectious people it isolates. If people are isolated at random, you have to isolate a lot more to get the same number of people who are infectious.
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They never said it wasn’t true, only that it creates the perception/impression. They preferred the public to be ignorant.
Is that Chicago?
I actually had more problems with fogging with a surgical mask than with the RZ respirator.
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Yes
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Has anyone tested/independently thought about whether a mask may be harmful to someone who has caught an asymptomatic case? If we’re getting behind the theory that viral load vs time is a significant factor and the primary purpose of masks is to block outgoing virus, that could lead to someone reingesting a lot of what would otherwise be expelled, right?
No. DUCY?
Apparently Matt Damon is stranded in Dublin:
Can’t travel, sure. Bet he’s been tested, though!
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Explaining his new recommendation that New Yorkers wear a face covering when they go outside, Mayor Bill de Blasio said that city health experts had become increasingly aware of the possibility of asymptomatic transmission.
“There’s not been much evidence of that before,” he said, speaking on MSNBC Friday morning.
But in fact, health experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and one of lead spokespersons for the White House coronavirus task force, have talked about evidence of asymptomatic transmission for months.
Earlier this month, de Blasio said that his advisers had concluded that the virus lasts only minutes on hard surfaces despite studies in other countries suggesting it could persist for days. Most recently, a study by U.S. scientists found that the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 can live in the air for several hours and persist on some surfaces for as long as two to three days.
“I want to emphasize again, there are studies, there are academic studies, there are global and national organizations providing the information they have,” he said, when asked about the research earlier this month. “But you know, the old saying, God bless the child who’s got his own or her own. This is the New York City Health Department, which is widely regarded as one of the best, strongest health organizations in America actually working with real patients here in real conditions in New York City.”
get rid of this fucking idiot JFC
Welp Matt Damon is getting coronavirus. If you’re so famous that going for a run makes international news you should probably stay inside.
Don’t you know he’s immune?
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Ron fucking Desantis wants to allow church services in FL. We are so fucked
Nursing homes are getting crushed here in MA. My MIL’s facility is not in the news yet, but one of the two confirmed cases died, and now they have 14 cases (not sure if confirmed, will check later.) [EDIT: The 14 number was from the local newspaper article, and we haven’t received any communication from the nursing home since we were told there are 2 cases.] My wife friend’s mother is in the same facility and now has a fever.
MIL is old and senile, but still remembers who people are. No one has visited her in almost a month, other than by video chat courtesy of the nice care workers. We, at least, will not be going anywhere near the facility, nor to a hospital, should she contract it and require hospitalization. She has a DNR and DNI order, so I don’t know whether she would even go to a hospital. Maybe just to a place where they give you morphine, and let you die without too much suffering. That’s the thing about the “oh, they would have died of something anyway” attitude – it completely ignores the real suffering of these people.
The National Guard is supposed to be testing everyone in the home real soon now.
In MA anecdotes, I went to the grocery store yesterday, and it was well stocked with food, but not cleaning and paper products. Meat was back in stock for now. Probably 30% of people were masked up, including some of the staff. So I think wearing masks will become part of everyday life pretty quickly around here.
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After the EO came out, I called my mom to make sure she wasn’t planning on going to church. She said they’ve done a remote service the last couple weeks. I was relieved, it’s a conservative church, so i figured they would be high on the Republican supply.
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Hmm, testing leads to better control and management. Interesting theory they got there.
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De blasio has the brain of a republican.
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If your old mom needs that, just go by yourself and get in and get out and don’t touch her or anything
As for social calls, stay the fuck inside.
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