I believe the Abbott 14 minute tests are antibody, and I think they plan to ship 50k by Monday.
It is not possible that there was significant previous exposure. Every hospital reports every pneumonia case. There was no spike in Jan/Feb.
Vict0ar
source?
Doesn’t say it’s antibody, but that seems consistent with a 15 minute test from my limited knowledge.
I mean that there was no increase in pneumonia in Jan/Feb. (I looked and can’t find it. It does vary a LOT, so a change in a month or two would not be immediately obviously anomalous.)
Read it last week. It was a standard to bad flu season. There were not old people dying in corridors or an unexplained spike in pneumonia. The reason pneumonia is monitored is to help identify such things.
Was it a maybe bad flu season or were corona cases being mistaken for flu?
The NY curve looked like normal flu until About March 1.
It’s been fairly reliably traced to a specific place and time. I don’t find it remotely plausible that a milder strain whipped around the world unnoticed a few months ago. That notion requires far, far more justification than a bad-ish flu season, which is the default assumption.
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NYS update
| Date | Total Cases | Daily Tests | New Cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/29/2020 | 59,513 | 16,390 | 7,195 |
| 3/28/2020 | 52,318 | 17,412 | 7,681 |
| 3/27/2020 | 44,635 | 16,272 | 7,377 |
| 3/26/2020 | 37,258 | 18,650 | 6,448 |
| 3/25/2020 | 30,811 | 12,137 | 5,146 |
| 3/24/2020 | 25,665 | 12,906 | 4,790 |
| 3/23/2020 | 20,875 | 16,739 | 5,707 |
| 3/22/2020 | 15,168 | 15,915 | 4,812 |
| 3/21/2020 | 10,356 | 12,979 | 3,254 |
| 3/20/2020 | 7,102 | 10,072 | 2,950 |
| 3/19/2020 | 4,152 | 7,584 | 1,770 |
| 3/18/2020 | 2,382 | 4,482 | 1,008 |
| 3/17/2020 | 1,374 | ? | 432 |
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Btw, this site often has good information about many things: https://slatestarcodex.com/ The author is a very smart psychiatrist with an interest in drugs and clinical trials. I’ve read it for a while because it’s one of the best blogs on the web, but it’s particularly relevant now.
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New hospitalizations up to 1,175 (from 847 the previous day)
New ICU admissions up to 282
846 discharged yesterday (up from 681 the previous day)
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slatestarcodex
In case anyone doesn’t remember, this is the guy who doesn’t understand the story of the boy who cried wolf. One of his blog entries, wherein he elucidated his inability to grasp that child’s fable, went viral after Trump got elected. Maybe he’s got good stuff on clinical trials or whatever, but just a PSA so everyone’s aware.
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Crazy that everyone knows what intubation means now.
It’s literally about the smartest blog on the internet. Maybe he made some mistake about the boy who cried wolf a few years ago, maybe he didn’t. (I honestly don’t know.) Who cares?
Edit: Looks like he updated the post to clarify his point: You Are Still Crying Wolf | Slate Star Codex
"Go away, pro-Trump bots
[Update 5/30: I originally took this post down because it got picked up by some pro-Trump accounts that I think were bots which would post it several times a day to various places. I didn’t want to be involved in that or seeming to support it. After that I got in more trouble because I was supposedly “censoring” or “hiding” this. In order to avoid the Streisand Effect, I think my best option is to leave it up with this disclaimer at the top and the rest in a hard-to-read font.
Overall I think the predictions here have been borne out. Trump has proven himself an awful president and an offensive and incontinent person, but has continued to deny overt racism without any particular evidence that his denials are false (even as huge quantities of evidence of all Trump’s other misdeeds have piled up). Despite inflammatory rhetoric and unprecedented incompetence, he has continued to pursue policies basically within the Republican mainstream.
Many people have tried to tell me this post “didn’t age well”, but I think they’re just continuing to make the same mistakes this post warns against. For example, this post warns against thinking of Trump’s opposition to immigration as some sort of shocking new development when it’s similar to other immigration opposition from other presidents of both parties. I predicted that Trump would not deport more people than Obama. Given all of the evidence of ICE atrocities, I’ve gotten a lot of people writing me to complain about how wrong I obviously was, but this is on track to be correct – Obama deported more people in 2010 than Trump did in 2017, and ICE was pretty atrocious during his administration too. If it doesn’t seem that way, that’s because my original thesis is still correct – Trump is acting within the (worst parts of the) US mainstream, but the media is spinning it as an unprecedented atrocity.
The other event that led to me getting lots of hate mail was the Charlottesville protests. Again, the fact that a pan-alt-right gathering attracted a few hundred people matches my claim that there are probably only a few thousand white supremacists in the US (and is consistent with my claim that they are less influential than Satanists, given that thousands of people have shown up to some Satanist masses). There have been white supremacist rallies (including white supremacist rallies with violence against counterprotesters) during the Bush administration and the Obama administration. The only thing that’s new in the Age of Trump is that the media is paying much more attention and people are considering them worthy of notice, or symbolic of some larger trend.
Overall I continue to believe Trump is a terrible president, but also not “an overt white supremacist” by any reasonable definition. I think the Democrats have done a good job focusing on Trump’s other bad qualities and have mostly stopped centering their criticism around bumbling attempts to link him to the KKK or to neo-Nazis – and I no longer am particularly upset with how they’re handling this matter. That makes this post of historical interest only.]"
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Tom Hanks and his wife are back in the US - presumably fully recovered.
I care because I remember it and how fucking dumb it was. Given that he’s apparently quadrupling-down on
only a few thousand white supremacists in the US
I think he can safely be dismissed as a pretty dim bulb politically/sociologically/whatever. Like I say, maybe he’s aces on clinical trials. People will decide for themselves, I’m not going to fight about it.
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As far as I can tell, his big claim is that Trump is just a normal run of the mill old Republican racist and not some would be klan leader. I have some minor issues with that, but I think his point could be read as the GOP was pretty bad prior to Trump, and Trump is nothing special.
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Ny stats give a little hope but they dipped/flattened last weekend also. Also as other have said they are basically meaningless because of the testing bottleneck.