The death rate would drop a ton over time, as people with conditions making them vulnerable all died. People would start wearing masks. We’d build more hospitals. Life expectancy would go down (but probably not by that much). Civilization would not end, unless coronavirus gets nukes or whatever jman’s worried about. Eventually the disease would evolve into something less deadly, like the flu.
I got tripped up on this earlier. There was an unusually severe flu b outbreak this winter, so the odds are 100% that a lot of people got a weird cold unrelated to coronavirus the same winter the pandemic started.
3 Likes
I thought there were indications of long-term lung damage in severe cases? That makes it seem like (in this admittedly fanciful viral Kobayashi Maru) a second dose could kill someone much more easily. And a third, etc.
I assume the viral load matters because your immune system response starts earlier.
So the time it takes to get from 10^2 to 10^4 you are already trying to combat it. So sure you might end up with 10^9 in both cases but in one you’re much further along with combatting it.
1 Like
That’s what I thought, Danspartan says nah. Seems to know what he’s about.
I recommend reading HIV vaccine/difficulties in development, it’s a good summary.
The flu vaccine is actually pretty unreliable. Compare to lifelong vaccines such as MMR (measles/mumps/rubella). The flu mixes and matches the proteins it uses to enter cells and new variants require new vaccines. A coronavirus vaccine, once developed, is likely to be more reliable going forward, but it won’t produce as long-lived an immunity as something like MMR.
There might be unique challenges to developing this vaccine. The section “A Potential Wrinkle” in this article is worth reading:
1 Like
For the first time probably since we moved to this site and definitely since COVID-19 became our reality, I consciously made an effort to not read anything here for the last 20 hours or so. It was a much needed mental cleanse. I suggest you all pick a day and do the same. Just totally check out of the news for one day.
That being said, what’d I miss? A quick skim looks like:
-CT trying to quarantine NY
-CDC trying to quarantine NY, NJ, and CT
-numbers starting to reach the holy shit level where idiots might start to pay attention
1 Like
That temperature map info has a bias. Social distancing has brought about a drastic decrease in influenza, lowering the baseline that is normally present. Was discussed up thread 3 days ago?
Since flu has a shorter latent period to symptoms and a shorter duration, social distancing benefit shows up much faster than for CV.
Hopefully some of the decrease is due to CV but don’t be surprised to see some areas make a sharp upward turn soon as the CV exponential growth numbers overwhelm the flu decrease.
1 Like
Wait, this guy is some sort of pseudo-religious type now? OK.
Omg. That sucks so bad. At least my water was in a concrete floored basement when that happened.
Ugh no clue what those restoration places charge. Have seen them in the neighborhood after storms with those big trucks filled with vacuum pumps to dry out carpet.
Be wary of those 24 hour no emergency fee services that advertise a ton. We ended up with one of those because the wife liked the advertising. Paid at least 50% above what we should have imo. They don’t charge an emergency fee, but they more than make up for it elsewhere. Hurt i I was out of town when it happened.
Conservative estimate: 20% of population tests positive= 65 million. Given hospitals being over run and Americans being in terribly health I see a 8-15% mortality rate on those positive tests (lower overall), one worse than Italy= >6.5 million dead, that’s over the entire run of this thing. I see a large chunk of those in the next month, ramping up toward the end of the month. Those were my conservative estimates. New Yorkers are probably in better shape than a good chunk of the entire US save for those on the West coast. Wait until towns all across the midwest get this, they aren’t practicing social distancing, those numbers will explode in the next couple weeks. Florida numbers are going to explode shortly too.
Unless there’s some kind of treatment(antibodies or something else) that can be used to quickly treat a lot of the ill then the numbers in the US will go crazy.
So I’ve only seen the Defense Authorization Act discussed in regards to more ventilators.
Why aren’t people pushing it for PPE as well? I feel like that stuff would be way easier to convert companies into making and we could fix our PPE shortage in a couple weeks. Is there a shortage of materials?
I mean obv Trump probably wouldn’t do it anyways, but why aren’t people at least trying to push for it? The stories coming out of hospitals are horrifying. My sister works in a clinic, but still obviously people coming in are going to be sick. They each have like 1 n95 mask they’re reusing and they have zero in stock besides that. And the clinic doesn’t allow them to bring their own masks.
Huge MRA/PUA-to-tradcath/similar pipeline, by all accounts.
The best statement I have seen is that that TRUMP in charge is the black swan, not the virus.
9 Likes
TIL GoJo invented Purell
Even then not really a black swan - America under the GOP has been clearly sliding into right wing extremism since Nixon.
2 Likes
- Blue states not getting medical supplies because they disrespected Trump; FL getting everything they ordered, despite not closing down beaches statewide
- fatality rate in Korea is 1.6%
1 Like
Manufacturing the filters is tricky.
1 Like
Seems like it would be less tricky than ventilators, but I’ve been wrong before
1 Like
As I pointed out two months ago, this is going to fuck up Africa a lot more than Malaria. DUCY?