I guess most people who have been laid off or sent to WFH think it is for Funsies.
Well, it’s impossible they’re identifying every case, so unless they are missing sick and dying people just as often as they miss asymptomatic people, the ratio is off. Seems pretty straightforward.
I don’t see how there can’t be 140 new infections every day while they identify 100 cases assuming most asymptomatic people stay asymptomatic and just get over it and never get tested.
Are you assuming asymptomatic just means haven’t yet shown symptoms?
Also seems like all the real epidemiologist type estimates are near or a bit over 1%. Seems like the people who are way way way off around here are the people talking 2% or 3% or 11%.
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Because those extra asymptomatic people would go around infecting others who would infect others and so forth…exponential growth…and some % of them would be symptomatic and get checked and if the cases are growing exponentially then the symptomatic cases wouldn’t be linear
Tokyo locked down yesterday.
So then your point is that SK is identifying every asymptomatic person or at least that for every asymptomatic person not identified, there’s a person who dies of COVID who is also not identified?
I don’t know why you are shifting the goal posts from 50% to “every single solitary case”
Neither of us are saying they capture every case.
But it’s not 50%, either.
Something is up with Japan. I am not a conspiritard, but this is a nation with a lot of old people and a lot of people jammed together in high concentrations, it should be getting overrun with COVID-19. Either they are fudging hte numbers or they are doing something very right.
I said 50%, 60%, 70% or something like that, but what you are saying implies that they are catching pretty close to 100% and that there’s essentially no bias in testing, lest the geometric progression of infection from asymptomatic cases would cause an increasing rate of detected cases.
Could it be 70%? Case fatality rate in SK is about 1.5%. That would make the Infection Fatality Rate about 1%.
Might as well called himself Trump.
Trump’s line.
I might not understand it either. But if the evidence supports it I’m not going to ignore it.
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Oh, the fatality rate is 30% or you’re the Trumpkin.
But what if 72 hours is my median time for letting packages sit before opening in normal times?
Did you just twitch a bit then pass out upon reading that?
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Look at who trusts the evil American government suddenly. COVID death #s are actually, like, the one thing they’re most likely lying about. There are tons of built-in incentives to lie, and they have plausible deniability in that lots of people strangely dying in hospitals (that a large amount of frontline workers are reporting are heavily overcrowded and short of PPE and ventilators) aren’t being tested.
You know how I can tell you’re being Trumpy?
All the unnecessary strawmans and goalpost shifting. It’s like you’re leaving joker cards at crime scenes.
I’m sorry I responded to you. I’m going to put you on block, not because I’m arguing with you now, but because you’re hiding who you were on 2p2, I probably have a history of talking/arguing with you there and it’s lame that you keep that secret.
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Wat? I was complaining about reddit’s UI.
Yeah we’re fucked in that scenario. No one wants to think about it because it’s pretty much the end of civilization. So unless you’re a prepper with a year’s worth of canned food and 50k rounds of ammunition, you’re probably not prepared.
Churches packed by Easter.
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Everything I’ve read (and I’ve read a ton) suggest to me that the asymptomatic rate is somewhere between 50% and 75% of of the total infected - as long as you’re looking at a representative population and not a super old-skewing pop like a cruise ship.