I mean my insurance is sending an adjuster over Monday and I’m wondering if I should even allow it. With laminate wood floors that are essentiallyfull of water in a significant part of my home. Truly wild times we are living in.
1 Like
The worst case scenarios seem to keep getting worse. So how does this play out in the worst case scenarios. For example, we find out there’s little or no lasting immunity from past infection, and we are unable to develop a vaccine or treatment.
We can certainly hope for better than SK’s rate considering they did not test random samples and we don’t know how many people have been infected there. 11% in Italy is absurd. The average age for someone who has died in Italy is 78-80. Somewhere around 20% in and around that age who show serious symptoms are dying and that’s like top 5% of the population. The mortality rate of all infected will be below 2%.
If it is impossible to gain immunity and no vaccine works then humanity is over as we know it. That is no exaggeration although I think it is very very unlikely that either of those conditions are reality.
1 Like
OKC
Girly little pump soaps. Does each bottle come with a doily?
You need to get a Real Man soap like Lava. It’s made with rocks. Like literal fucking volcanic rock in the soap. And you can feel that shit. It ain’t some finely ground powder. It hurts, and that’s their whole marketing campaign. Soap with rocks that’s legit painful to wash up with. Fuck yeah.
5 Likes
Not to single you out in particular but I’m getting a little sick of this “we don’t know how many people have been infected therefore it could be literally any number you can imagine” line. South Korea have tested more than 316,000 people for a total case count of less than 10,000. They have had cases increase linearly by only 100 per day for more than 2 weeks straight in a country of 50 million, without severe lockdowns. These facts are not compatible with the idea that there are a large number of undetected cases in the community. If there were, detected cases would be rising at far greater than a linear rate.
6 Likes
Also the fact that corona deaths are way under-reported as well. Probably not as bad as in the USA, but we can probably 4x-15x the USA reported deaths to get a more accurate picture.
I’m glad they carved out an exception because Canadians aren’t real Americans and wouldn’t just sacrifice their kids for nothing.
I’m just kidding Canadians suck too they just look better relatively.
It’s not literally any number you can imagine. It’s something very simple like, because of the bias in who gets tested and the fact that many infected people show no symptoms at all, they are detecting 50% or 60% or 70% of those infected - all things which would have a significant effect on the estimated mortality rate.
1 Like
15x the reported deaths is as crazy as Jman’s idea that people with broken arms are going to be dying off because of hospital crowding. There is no way that the US is only reporting 7% of COVID deaths.
2 Likes
if Trump can’t benefit from the $2 trillion…
It did not destr–… oh fuck it
9 Likes
I mean, civilisation as we know it ends.
But the “bias in who gets tested” doesn’t mean only people with symptoms. South Korea were doing extensive contact tracing and they picked up most of their asymptomatic cases. Again, the reason I know this is that positively identified cases have been increasing linearly now for ages. It’s not possible to have a giant iceberg of undetected cases floating around, because asymptomatic cases spawn symptomatic cases. If 10,000 cases escaped the dragnet, which is what you’re suggesting by saying that SK uncovered only 50% of cases, then COVID-19 would be rampant in SK right now. It’s literally impossible. What I meant by “any number you can imagine” is that you are refusing to allow any constraint on the number in the absence of random population testing, even though in many cases it’s very clear that the number is constrained. I agree that in Italy we have no clue how many are really infected, but in South Korea we do.
By the way, the South China Morning Post reported on classified Chinese documents which said that in addition to the 82,000 admitted cases, the Chinese found 43,000 asymptomatic cases whom they quarantined but did not include in official counts. That would suggest that the fatality rate in China is much too high - which is not surprising since it stands at 4% - but also that contact tracing and so on identifies a lot of the asymptomatic cases if good testing protocols are in place.
2 Likes
To elaborate on this, this study, which speculates on there having been a large number of asymptomatic infected in Wuhan prior to the lockdown, also speculates that 79% of documented cases were infected by asymptomatic individuals. My point is, in the absence of rapidly increasing case numbers (and the absence of a severe lockdown) you can’t speculate that there are large numbers of undetected cases out there. You can speculate about that in Italy, but not South Korea.
Nothing about there being a bias in testing implies they are only testing people showing symptoms. Your point is that they are detecting every single solitary infected person and that’s wrong.
I’d use a first round pick on water heaters in the assholes draft.
4 Likes
That’s not my point. My point is that your suggestion that testing only caught 50% of cases in South Korea is completely impossible because if that were true, symptomatic cases would have risen much faster than they have. So far you haven’t addressed this. It’s just not possible that there are thousands of cases out there wandering around in the community but that these cases are only generating 100 new identified cases per day, linearly.