I had anacrhonistic on ignore and I don’t remember why.
The current meme among conservatives is to blame the deaths on liberals who minimized the threat in the distant past, mostly in New York. I’ll bet that video was from some time in early-mid February before any kind of lockdown is reasonable. That reverse cargo cult thing you like.
Yeah probably true.
I still don’t like the “It can only be contracted in the home so just go about partying and rubbing up against people in the subway and doing everything you normally do” idea. Well then how the fuck did it ever spread in the first place?
I’m fine with trashing stupid-ass liberal govt mouthpieces when they deserve it.
This is very possible, although in this day and age it’ll be hard to hide information from the public without shutting down the Internet/social media.
That really sucks, I’m sorry you’re going through it. Not much else to be said, but hopefully it can get fixed and damage can be repaired with minimal outside people coming into your home, and you can disinfect right after they leave.
We either go back to normal and lose ~one-half of one percent to 1% of the population every year, or we do a complete global lockdown until every last outbreak has run its course and there is no COVID-19 left. This is ~impossible to execute in reality, even if everyone could agree. Someone’s always going to fuck up somewhere, fail to disinfect some obscure surface somewhere, etc.
Or we do extreme social distancing forever and life exists in some really weird way to even think about right now. Masks, gloves, etc, and we sit around and talk of how it used to be in the olden days before COVID-19.
None of these is very likely. We’re probably > 99% to get an effective vaccine within 3 years and probably > 90% to get it within 1.5 years. There seems to be a ton of confidence in 3-4 different ways of doing it, it’s just a matter of testing. We’re also likely to develop a variety of medical treatments that are better than the best we currently have. We’re using like flu meds, HIV anti-virals, and a malaria med and there is some promise that some of them are somewhat effective.
That feels to me, as a non-expert, like the medical version of Macgyver-ing it. Once we actually refine a drug for it, there’s a decent chance we can drop the mortality rate down to flu-like levels, I would think.
Let’s say we can’t find a cure, and the first round of vaccine testing is totally fucked, so we’re looking at like 3 years of rolling lockdowns and social distancing. I don’t think we screech to a total halt, although it obviously has massive implications on society and the economy.
But, basically, I see people laid off in the service industry shifting into supply chain positions - from picking fruit to driving trucks to loading/unloading stuff, to delivering stuff. Like we’d lose a huge chunk of our economy but also domesticate a huge chunk as well, so it’s hard to say just how high unemployment would stay for that stretch of time, but it wouldn’t be 20-30% and might not even be > 10%.
GDP would go way down, real estate would be fucked, and a lot of shit would change quite a bit, but we’d get through it, I think. The question is how much unrest is there as people get fed up/pissed.
They are likely catching a lot of people they miss once that cluster triggers a severe, symptomatic case. Given their contact tracing there seems to be pretty intense, it stands to reason that a cluster can’t exist for more than a few weeks to a month without being identified. Assuming that social distancing, testing, mask-wearing, etc have lowered their R0, it’s quite possible this is what’s going on… That it’s not spreading so rapidly they can’t scramble and trace back each outbreak.
What I haven’t really heard addressed is what does 1% mean - does that mean in five years when data scientists and epidemiologists crunch the numbers they conclude the total fatality rate was 1%? Or does it mean with proper medical care 1% of patients die? Cause what we’re seeing in places where the hospitals are overrun is that the number is surging.
Are we talking asymptomatic as in never develop any symptoms, or asymptomatic as in during the incubation period AND/OR never develop symptoms?
It’s not a black swan event. A virus like this has been predicted for many years.
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Asymptomatic as in never knew they had it at all. https://promarket.org/why-mass-testing-is-crucial-the-us-should-study-the-veneto-model-to-fight-covid-19/
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It says two people being tested and three others tested negative, so that’s likely before NYC had its first positive test… New York’s first positive test was 3/1, so at the latest this was in late-February.
Stupid and ill-informed, but she was probably in the 99th percentile in knowledge on COVID-19 at the time of the interview. The other 1% were Unstuckers.
She works in public health. Don’t tell people you can only catch it at home. What did she think everyone in Wuhan was wife-swapping or something?
It’s literally as bad as Trump comparing it to the flu, maybe worse. We’re just giving her a pass because we think her heart was in the right place.
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It’s going to be lit if/when we get widespread antibody testing. I know so many people in real life and on here who have mentioned having a really weird cold this year. It’s hard to imagine that coronavirus was running rampant in the US in like December and January, but it’s quite possible…
Like, nobody was looking for it. Nobody was testing for it. Nobody was doing chest scans looking for that ground glass appearance in the lungs. Nobody was testing posthumously. Imagine how many old people could have died at home from a severe cold and nobody even though it could possibly be coronavirus. Imagine how many people could have been hospitalized for pneumonia and never knew why.
Especially if the stuff about a severe and a mild strain is true and it was the mild strain going around then…
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I LOL’d. But there was a study about something like 75-80% of cases being contracted at home in Wuhan, IIRC.
Fair.
Beware of that site. Conspiracy propagandist billy spears from 2-2 quotes from it.
This is a good sign, as it would cap US mortality at 2.3M in a worst-case scenario, assuming some level of immunity is conferred.
Capping Trump’s range here is pretty important.
I do think the model for this long-term, which we’d probably already be under if we had Obama or Hillary as POTUS is:
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Shutdown the entire country for 3-6 weeks, long enough to slow the spread, contact trace, and get a handle on things domestically.
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Widespread testing.
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Regional semi-quarantine of population centers. If you want to travel to another population center, you’ve got to test negative at the airport/train station.
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Test EVERYONE coming in from overseas, mandate 2-week quarantines on all travelers from overseas. Bonus points: this props up the hotel industry a bit if you quarantine them at airport hotels.
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Cap on event size at like 50 people, unless everyone entering is tested. Require social distancing in all restaurants and bars. So if they can mass produce tests with quick results that are cost effective, we can have concerts and sporting events. If not, no dice.
Essentially, you lockdown long enough to almost eradicate it domestically (at which point you can contact trace all future clusters and limit outbreaks). You then use testing to prevent any other outbreaks.
This would also have a minimal economic effect over a 12-24 month period IMO because everyone would know the plan up front, know it was limited, and have a fair amount of freedom to move around and live life afterward. Restaurants could still do business.
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I listen to Progress radio on XM most days on my way to and from work. They have had a few doctors on talking about patients they had in January-February with flu/pneumonia like symptoms that they never could figure out what the ailment really was. It seems like a near lock there were cases here in January.
Probably because he is a coward who came from 22 but is afraid to be responsible for all the dumb stuff they said over the years.
Yeah that’s why I quickly deleted it. But then everyone got curious so I reposted.
It’s obviously a bunch of compiled BS.
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