Anxiously awaiting Cuomo’s comments on vent supply today. Making some popcorn.
Also a huge reason to be extremely skeptical of any “summer pause”. The entire country is hot and humid af.
1 Like
The latest Ezra Klein show has a bioethicist on that discusses this. More generally, all sorts of regulations implicitly or explicitly place a value on human life, generally around $5M or so, maybe $10k if you live in the wrong part of the world. See Value of life - Wikipedia
If you really want to know the value of a life, it’s:
edit: As as the podcast discusses, there isn’t really a clear tradeoff between “killing the economy” and saving people, because even if all lockdown orders were withdrawn we’d still be at more or less a standstill between the ill, the concerned, the mourning, etc., and the surge on hospitals would make it much worse. Also, many corporations would remain locked down out of concern for/demands by employees, there would be no travel or sports, or movie attendance, etc. At best, the economy would at 50-75% of the current standstill. That there is a “no lockdown/no economic freefall” scenario is something of a myth.
1 Like
Thailand confirmed hot and humid AF. 12 months a year.
I think Thailand kept initial numbers low through extensive screening, track and trace and making tourists daily report movements etc. by app. I know they are now losing it having reached 850 confirmed cases - hard to keep it under control when that many were infected weeks ago.
EDIT: Thailand now at 1,136 cases, up ~300 in the last 24 hours
1 Like
Economist here. As elaborated on in the Wikipedia article, the concept that economists and policy makers use to think about these things is the value of a statistical life. Essentially that is inferred from how much you (or society) are willing to spend to reduce the probability of death by some small amount (or equivalently save some number of randomly drawn lives). This is a different concept than the value of saving a specific life from certain death.
6 Likes
I would have fired the writers if they said, “Just a heads-up: Boris Johnson is going to come across as 40x more presidential than the U.S. President.”
5 Likes
I’m curious about the quality of the US death rate. It sounds counter intuitive because deaths are easy to count, but based on the Alabama experience I wonder if the following is happening:
- Hospitals and doctors send tests to the labs. Labs report to the state health authorities, and back to the hospitals and doctors on results. These numbers are published.
- Days pass. Some previously unhospitalized patients are admitted into the hospital system, people are transferred around, moved to different hospital divisions, etc.
- Some patients die.
- Now the data has to get reported back to the state health authorities. Do hospitals ever lack the case number for the positive test result that might have been given to a different entity? Are hospitals compelled to report to the health agencies via a standardized format? What if there is a discrepancy that fails to tie the death to a confirmed existing case? Whose responsibility is it to resolve this?
I think we’re going to see some wildly different methodologies used in step 4, and that alone will cause diverging death rates by state.
An administration acting in good faith of its citizens could easily compel states to standardize reporting formats and better understand the spread of the disease, but we’re just rolling with whatever people feel like doing. USA#1 ftw.
Hancock has it to.
2 Likes
is he battling it? I thought he was asympomatic? or was that just early on?
ah yes!
UK Health Secretary Hancock also tests positive
UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock has tested positive for the coronavirus. He is self-isolating at home and his symptoms are said to be mild.
1 Like
Because their job and their reputation/status relies on them being allowed back tomorrow.
1 Like
Trump is literally incapable of understanding the difference between per capita and absolute numbers if it suits him. All that would do is let him reiterate his bullshit and call the reporter fake news.
Updating NYC numbers as of 3/26 5PM
| Age Group | Cases | Deaths | Fatality Rate | Hospitalized Cases | Hospitalized Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 17 | 495 | - | 0.0% | 46 | 9.3% |
| 18 to 44 | 10,145 | 16 | 0.2% | 950 | 9.4% |
| 45 to 65 | 7,896 | 77 | 1.0% | 1,749 | 22.2% |
| 65 to 74 | 2,627 | 91 | 3.5% | 946 | 36.0% |
| 75 and over | 1,935 | 181 | 9.4% | 1,029 | 53.2% |
| Unknown | 41 | - | 0.0% | - | 0.0% |
| Total | 23,139 | 365 | 1.6% | 4,720 | 20.4% |
Jesus that hospitalisation rate is insane
2 Likes
There are many factors and that is one if them. I think another is that you have to think of who these journalists are and how they got there. I imagine that one doesn’t get to be a WH press reporter in you first week on the job. That is to say, you get to ask the President questions only if you have been promoted up to that desirable position within your news organization. By the time you get that job, you’re probably pretty well established inside the beltline. Good pay. Nice house. Maybe a spouse that also works in the same circles. All that to say - should we really expect a person in that spot to be motivated to throw bombs and be disruptive? Or should we expect them to work within the narrow confines of the system that has supported their personal success journey for their whole adult lives?
One of the starkest reminders for me from the last 5 years is this: no matter how obvious it is that a system desperately needs disrupting, you absolutely 100% cannot expect people in the system to do the disrupting.
6 Likes
USA#1 healthcare system
5 Likes
Updating the NYC hospital data. No improvement as of Wednesday–in fact Wednesday was a new peak.
If these rates hold, within about 3 weeks there will be more influenza-like illness admissions in 2020 than during any of the last full five years.
Don’t worry Trump says they don’t need that many ventilators. Oh and everyone insurance is running out too. I guess the good news is that many won’t have to worry about paying those medical bills.