go on
This has been my hope as well. It is why developing an antibody test should be pretty high up on the list of things we need to be doing.
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We will be the 42nd country to develop an antibody test after Zimbabwe. Unfortunately the test will cost $37,495 each. (Zimbabwe test $4.68)
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Those people got infected a 1-3 weeks ago.
I don’t think hot weather kills it, and of course you can still spread it if you’re an idiot spring breaker or villager. I just think it’s not the sweet spot.
Prepare to be guffawed.
Quick note about Washington State stats today. They mentioned there would be an uptick today because of processing a backlog of tests, but the virus is not accelerating, supposedly.
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I’m still getting .27-.30 death rates (2.4 days to double) That gets to 1,000 per day still on 3/30 or 3/31. Just assume 250 per day now and two more doublings in 5 days.
Seeing those state curves of total cases has me freaked out a bit. I expect an uptick in the local death curve as the ability to treat is impacted. But some areas are going to hit blow past their limits. NYC is the test case. Then hopefully they will slow down as the effects of shelter in place hit. But Even then it won’t go down very fast. Probably get a more or less constant rate for weeks.
NY state rate is closer to doubling every 2 days but it’s noisier than the national rate.
But with very few exceptions (Seattle SF) city after city and state after state is reacting too slowly. Voluntary at first and then shelter in place.
I sure hope they all slow before locally be much over 1,000 per day. So I expect the national slope will drop some with some locations in the low thousand per day while others are riding an exponential their local peaks.
If that happens that will push out 10k per day a few days and hopefully it doesn’t get much worse (think 10-20 Italy’s all at once). That probably holds throughout April.
Without any net slowdown we are looking at 100k total by mid April. A win is not getting there until May.
And seriously we will see a handful of senators die by then. If from Rand Paul if nothing else. That shit should be hitting the fan starting this weekend. Gotta be lots of comorbidity in that group.
I don’t know if it’s raw deaths, famous deaths, political deaths, or personal deaths that’s going to hit the big fear nerve but it’s going to happen before any Easter plan to reopen.
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New Hampshire went to shelter in place today. It feels like this is pretty early compared to some other states. Does your state data agree with this?
There is no reason to think our death rate is much below 1%
If we use best in class (0.6%?) and we assume we are really have 1500 deaths that works out to a round quarter million or about 3x the current count.
If our death rate is more like 1.2% that’s 125k total case or an undercount by about 1.3x.
We are missing cases but probably in the 50-150k range. Not the millions. Unless we are way off on deaths.
(Yes the deaths lag, but the convention to date has been today/today, that why I used lower death rates to compensate)
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It’s a novel coronavirus. Tens of millions are not going to eventually catch it. Hundreds of millions are. Nobody has any immunity to it and it is in the wild. Social distancing only slows it down.
I mean even the most conservative estimates in the USA at this point are pretty insane. If only 20% get it and the real death rate is .5% that is still over 300,000 dead. That’s over 5 Vietnams in 1/15th or so the amount of time.
I haven’t done a careful state by state when they closed down. There is a resource that lets you play with state by state numbers and models outcomes based on degree of social distancing
You guys are shutting down a little faster than PA based on total numbers but at probably a significantly higher % of population number. Problem going to be pretty ugly in an urban area.
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What britcom is this from?
The thick of it. Available on amazon prime in usa and it’s great
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LOL. That’s not what you said. You said
If tens of millions of people catch covid then roughly everyone will be tested.
Your Devil’s Advocate bullshit might work w/ your friends and on Facebook but it won’t work here.
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Fair enough. What do you think the sweet spot is? I have no idea how these viruses work. I just see cases in FL going up and it’s already hot here so I’m like “Oh shit, the hot weather isn’t slowing it down.”
@suzzer99 will be interested to know that hospitalizations in NYC are up to 4,720 today from 3,922 yesterday
What is capacity? Any idea?
I think the ICU number was 5,000?
One more doubling and they are going Italian style.
There needs to be a moratorium on April fools jokes this year. Not going to be a funny day in America.
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The study that said hot was slowing it down, it only slows it a little. Summer ain’t saving us.