The rate of increase doesn’t say much unless you take into account both the rate of testing and the criteria for getting tested.
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Detroit and New Orleans are going to be disasters for sure.
The number of people infected matters. We have no idea what that number is. Test a random sample ffs.
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I don’t even have to deal with that, I’m running on the street and there’s nobody. This morning I couldn’t sleep and am crazy so I ran at 4:30 and saw literally zero people. Maybe three cars.
But I have had to change my dog walking route. Tons of people cruising down the sidewalk who would happily smack right into you if you don’t dodge. So now I go another way.
Thank you all for your running input, I will continue logging them miles.
I mean at this point they are only testing the very sick people mostly right? If the number of very sick people testing positive is growing exponentially over time that matters even if 95% of people who have it are never tested.
It’s possible I’m just dumb but just because we know the numbers aren’t accurate doesn’t mean we can’t draw ANY conclusions from them right?
MEXICANS AGREE TO PAY FOR BORDER WALL (FENCE)
Mexican protesters tell Americans to ‘stay at home’
Residents in Sonora, Mexico - south of the US state of Arizona - have promised to block American traffic into Mexico for a second day amid fears that untested American travellers will spread Covid-19.
Donning face masks, the protesters held signs telling Americans to “stay at home”.
Mexico has less than 500 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, compared to 69,197 in the US.
This border is supposed to be closed - with the exception of “essential” business - but resident say there has been little enforcement and no testing by authorities.
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Lucky for me my dog is an ahole (to other dogs) so I’m used to the road less traveled on dog walls.
We know for a fact Washington got hit and then things have at least for the moment died down, due to on the ground reporting from Will.
This is borne out in the stats: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/washington/
I’m not saying I know any of this stuff. But I am saying it seems like a reasonable chance that Wash was helped by some combination of a younger, fitter, less smoking, less family-oriented population, less population density, less cold-dry air, people taking it more seriously than Italy, etc. who the hell knows. They never ran out of ventilators at least in this first wave.
A week ago I would have bet money that Washington would be the first to tip over in the US.
The fact that the Bay Area is sort of flat-lining is another data point in that direction - that maybe our crappy lockdowns + some unknown combination of those other factors make us less likely to turn into Italy in a lot of places.
That said, NYC, ATL, and NO seem touch and go right now.
I don’t really want to go back and forth forever because I’m basically saying I went from 70/30 that we might have a dozen or more cities in the US looking like N. Italy, to now 30/70 that that will happen.
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You have to correct for how many more tests are being done. And at this point it’s not only the very sick who are being tested. Lots of people who were in contact. In LA they are testing some people anyway who drive up to roadside testing places. They may have to show some symptoms to qualify, but aren’t hospitalized.
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Might have missed this in the conversation, but in NY you are explicitly not supposed to get tested unless you need hospitalization because resources are so scarce.
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I’d be out if I was in that situation but then again if you become a nurse or doctor you probably aren’t a selfish, heartless person like myself. Our good family friend who is an ER Dr at one of the main corna patient spots in our area is just assuming she will get it and doesn’t really care
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You guys are definitely part of a new experiment…
Trump hints at ‘relaxed’ social distancing guidelines
The White House is working to release federal social distancing guidelines that may advise some regions to loosen restrictions, President Donald Trump wrote in a letter to the governors of all 50 US states. In Thursday’s letter, Trump speaks of a “long battle ahead” and says that “robust” testing protocols may allow some regions to lift their safeguards against the coronavirus.
He says the “new guidelines” will create low, medium and high risk zones that will allow the government to advise on “maintaining, increasing, or relaxing social distancing and other mitigation measures they have put in place”.
With more than three million Americans newly out of work, Trump is working hard to get the country back open by Easter.
And as the BBC’s Anthony Zurcher writes, the president knows his political future may depend on it.
The below is just a speculative guess. Don’t @ me.
Like if I had to guess what I think the most likely scenario right now is out of the universe of other possibilities - I would guess we’re going to get something like 3-5x (or w/e some multiple) of a horrible flu season, for 18 months.
We’ll have a cycle of lockdown/letup which will be just effective enough to keep it just below ventilator crunch, probably failing in some areas here and there but it will mostly be poor public hospitals so unfortunately the public outcry will be limited.
Frontline healthcare workers who’ve had the virus are going to be worked to death, see horrors every day, and should probably start thinking about strike plans for triple pay during this.
The big question mark is what does let up even look like? I’m going to guess it’s some kind of let youngs out and confine olds to their homes. We know China’s let up looks like our lockdown. And Italy might not even be ready to let up before some parts of the US are. So US might literally be trying things out for the first time. Or maybe we can follow Germany.
One big problem obviously is different areas going through different levels of outbreak. Maybe some kind of travel restrictions between states or to cities. Although I have no idea how they enforce this.
Maybe we’ll get a summer pause and maybe more effective treatments that aren’t in ludicrously short supply will be discovered.
Or maybe half the country tips over and looks like N. Italy. That’s well within the realm of possibility.
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I swear if she gets it and gets through and there’s an antibody test or w/e - I’d demand 3x more money and sell my services to the highest bidder. They deserve it easily.
Bingo, so sick of people quoting positive test results as if they mean fuck all.
Yeah that meshes with some of the stuff I just predicted. At least Trump is talking about rigid testing. You can’t open back up with the fake testing we’re doing now in a lot of states.
It is going to matter for the media narrative here. So in that sense they do matter some.
50% of availble US tests being carried out in NY, that much we know.
May be Washington getting the other 50% and all is clear. Tests split thinly through other states.
No. It displays a fundamental lack of understanding and effective communication from the powers that be that people are complaining about solo joggers at off hours.