If Trump’s read this better than anyone itt then we might as well all don the red caps and hail the messiah.
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We’re not about to end that. Why does everyone keep assuming the states are going to allow business as usual on 4/12 just because Trump wants it? The states are going to operate on their own timetables.
And I fully expect us to have to lock down again after we open up. Maybe not until fall though.
Like 40 states aren’t even in lockdown now? So I’m not sure what you mean. If California, New York, etc. Hold out Trump is going to force them to reopen by withholding aid or at least threatening it. He was already laying the groundwork for that today.
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Most cities are. Kansas City is in a more severe lockdown than LA.
Most cities are not in lockdown. And I don’t think the ones that are, are in actual lockdown outside of a few. Saying only essential workers can go to work is not a lockdown.
I’m not really into going round and round on this forever.
I just feel like it’s 70/30 that only NYC has hospitals overrun, which means more resources can presumably be pulled in.
I’m just making a prediction. A few days ago I still thought hospitals were going to tip over all over the country. Not I think they may not.
I think a lot of people will die. There will be a huge scandal about recording deaths properly. In the end it will be like some multiple of flu season. It will be horrible. But it won’t be like Italy. All I’m saying.
I’m done defending this. We’ll know soon enough if I’m right or wrong.
9% mortality rate, 20% of the world too sick to work, repeat of the 1918 pandemic, nuclear war, etc.
And then Trump still wins the election.
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Coronavirus cases hit 400,000 worldwide
At least 400,000 cases of coronavirus have now been confirmed worldwide, a new milestone in the number of infections, according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University.
The university has been keeping track of the number of coronavirus cases and deaths on its online global dashboard.
Its data shows the number of confirmed cases has grown exponentially in the past few weeks, with European countries in particular reporting a huge surge in infections.
Global cases surpassed 100,000 on 6 March, 200,000 on 18 March, 300,000 on 21 March and 400,000 on 24 March, the university’s dashboard shows.
Here are the five countries with the most cases:
- China, with 81,591 cases
- Italy, with 69,176 cases
- The US, with 49,768 cases
- Spain, with 39,676 cases
- Germany, with 31,991 cases
I think an important concept is what the curve looks like for how extreme your lockdown is vs the results they generate, as I don’t think they are anywhere near linear. If people are still playing in the park, and having play-dates, and what have you, the community spread is probably significant.
The curve might be pretty flat most of the way and then get exponentially better at the far end with extreme, across the board tactics.
Maybe half-measures only get you 10% results.
I had Trump shutting down the press, implementing Martial law and death camps for illegals, which then extended to Muslims, then any political enemies. The Democracy period ends and the Caesar period of US history begins.
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So what’s happening in Washington state? Are they yet to be really whalloped?
I was just wondering yesterday what would happen if like a carrier or a sub had a few people who contracted the virus and they didn’t find out till they were in the middle of the Indian ocean or wherever. I guess we’re about to find out.
my guess is the curve looks like this
good returns on initial effort, then pretty marginal improvements through the middle, and then a steep drop when you go to the most extreme measures
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Is there any place to look at day by day stats of a state?
My best guess for Washington is they didnt have that many cases to start with and also flattened the curve be adopting the lockdown first I think. If everyone went back to normal in Washington my best guess is it goes wild again. This graph makes it look like they have flattened it some but havent hit peak yet.
Eta: according to that tracking site below this cases are increasing every day in Washington.
This could a massive effect on drug supplies within the US in the coming months/year depending on how long it lasts.
India ceased export of medicine about 3 weeks ago. Apparently China supplies most of the raw ‘ingredients’ but they limited supply months ago so India also stopped exports when materials low.
Paracetamol / children meds etc in very short quantites in Europe.